WOULD PUTIN STOP THE WAR RIGHT NOW IF CONDITIONS WERE RIGHT? I BELIEVE SO.

This is my longest commentary by far to date after many years of writing them with approximately 1,250 of them written to date. It is very likely to be one of my last however....

Being my longest commentary to date, it is my honest appraisal of the best chance both Russia and Ukraine have of coming out of the tragedy of the past few years and finally reaching the peace I am sure both sides long for. I would humbly ask therefore if you could please bear with me, hear me out and do all you personally can to advocate for a renewed peace…

I believe there is now some hope that the awful tragedy of the Ukraine war will end before many more months pass. Partly due to Trump, but only peripherally. I believe only the everyday Ukrainian man and woman in the street will ultimately be the vital factor in bringing the peace that both they and the Russian people, by majority, have been wishing, hoping and longing for ever since their mutual tragedy began..

It should be remembered that in 2014 Putin refused the request of the new republics, at that time within the boundaries of Ukraine, that they could not join the Russian Federation but must remain right where they were, as an integral part of Ukraine’s sovereign boundaries. What he did agree to do was work tirelessly in negotiation with the new Ukrainian authorities to get the Russian-speaking people of the Donbass a degree of autonomy within Ukraine that would guarantee their security in terms of language, ability to retain their pro-Russian attitudes and culture and, most importantly freedom from the daily bombardment by the Ukrainian army and associated militias they were now under.

Putin then took part in the Minsk process where he sought to bring the above about. For over six years he tried to do this. He worked with both Ukrainian presidents, first Poroshenko and later Zelensky to do this, or at least this is what he thought was happening. The process, apart from Putin and the leadership in Ukraine also included Angela Merkel of Germany and Francoise Hollande, later Emmanuel Macron. There is nothing to indicate that Putin was not sincere in his efforts to achieve peace and reconciliation through Minsk and, through this, maintain the status quo where the boundaries between Russia and Ukraine remained unchanged.

 Unfortunately, we know now that neither Merkel not Poroshenko nor Zelensky had the same ambition as Putin. Merkel has confessed that the entire Minsk process was simply used as a stalling technique so that Ukraine could rebuild its army. Poroshenk has admitted to this similarly. When, after over six years of going every extra mile in hope of a successful outcome Putin heard these statements from Merkel and Poroshenko you can perhaps imagine how he felt. Duped. Betrayed. Tricked. In February 2023 Zelensky too finally admitted to more or less the same thing. They had collectively and cynically worked together to fool Putin into thinking peace was a possible.

Zelensky admits he never intended to implement Minsk agreement.

9 Feb 2023

‘Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admits that he never thought about implementing the pivotal Minsk agreements reached with the Donbass.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted on Thursday that he had previously told German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron that the Minsk agreements were "impossible", and he did not plan on implementing them.’

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Back in late 2021, early 2022 Zelensky stated that he no longer saw the Minsk Agreements (ratified at the United Nations) as they way forward any more. Just to add insult to injury so to speak, he added that he was now interested in re-acquiring Ukraine’s nuclear weapon capacity and status. While the Minsk process was ongoing, from 2015 to 2022 the Ukrainian army was indeed being beefed up with NATO heavily involved. In addition a 1,000+ km multi-line series of fortifications and trench systems were built facing the border with the two republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. But it appears that it was Zelensky saying he wanted nukes back on Ukrainian soil that was the very last straw for Putin.

Talk about a red rag to a bul!  Zelensky at this stage was taunting Putin and Russia. If a peaceful resolution of the situation in the Donbass (where 15,000 had already died) was not in prospect you should ask yourself what did Zelensky see as the solution at that point? We can gain a clue from the records of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) who had been monitoring things in the Donbass for many years previously. Their records show a large increase in the use of missiles and artillery in January and early February 2022. The records also show that the majority of these were from the Ukrainian army positions. Then, also in those early months of 2022 Russian secret service discovered Ukrainian plans for a ground invasion of the Donbass. At that point it became very clear what Zelensky’s intentions were.

Meanwhile, Russia had made one last attempt to bring some sanity into the proceedings and avoid a war. A detailed document was sent to both NATO’s European HQ and Joe Biden in the White House. It asked that both consider joining with others including Russia to thrash out a new security architecture for Europe where each and every nation could rely on being sheltered more effectively from any circumstance that could lead to war. This idea was rejected by both NATO and the White House.

Putin, regarding the cumulative levels of obvious bad faith and malign intentions he was faced with was left with no good options and only a single option he knew he now had to take. With without doubt extreme reluctance he initiated Russia’s special military operation on February 24th 2022. It was surely absolutely clear to him that if he did not then Russia’s security would be severely and without doubt permanently, compromised. 

Putin’s hope seems to have continued to spring eternal for in the first months of the conflict he sent a delegation to meet with one from Ukraine to try to end the bloodshed and come to an agreement to settle things so that peace between the two nations could resume. This began, once again in Minsk, then continued in Istanbul where, much to everyone’s surprise much progress was made. One of the chief negotiators on the Ukrainian side has expressed his surprise at how modest Russia’s demands were; Ukraine to remain neutral, outside NATO and have an army of only 30,000 or so, all other issues to be resolved by the leaders of the two nations at a later date. The document stating these agreements was duly initialed by both sides.

Everyone who takes any interest in this conflict knows well what happened next. Boris Johnson arrived in Kiev with a message for Zelensky. The West would back him to the hilt with everything he needed to defeat Russia, abandon these negotiations right away and begin pushing Russia completely out of all Ukrainian territory including Crimea. So began the stage of the conflict we remain in now. A conflict that Russia is steadily winning against the entire firepower and financial muscle of the West.

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The above is but a preamble to the main topic of this commentary, why must Russia continue its operation in Ukraine until it reaches a point where Russia’s future security is secured and what is stopping Putin from calling a halt right now?

First off, we can see from the first part of this commentary one very obvious and conspicuous fact, that only one person was seeking to find a peaceful resolution to the situation that existed in Ukraine and the Russian-speaking Donbass.That person is very obviously Vladimir Putin. The constant assertion by political and media elites in the West that Putin and Russia wer “unprovoked”... well, this is false ‘on its face’ as they say. 

But having said all this can’t Putin, having taken a fair chunk of the Donbass now call a halt? With the way this conflict has been fought, with a slow grinding war of attrition, all that is being gained in most part is a battlefield of ruined towns and villages. Yes, there remain some cities in the Donbass such as Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Odessa, Kherson and Kharkiv that have majority Russian-speaking populations that it would be ideal to have within the Russian Federation… but at what cost and is this REALLY necessary?

Think of how things could be in Ukraine without the Zelensky regime in power. The odds must be very good that the people of western and central Ukraine must be heartsick of the conflict. It is clear they already were when they gave the peace candidate Volodomyr Zelensky a landslide win against Poroshenko in 2019. They were hungry for peace then. Can you imagine how hungry they are now? And can you imagine also then what kind of president and government they would wish to elect NOW? One that takes a bellicose stance toward Russia, advocating even more war? I very much doubt it. So, knowing what lengths Putin went to to avoid war and to instead seek peace and reconciliation don’t you think some compromise situation could be worked out in these circumstances?

Now, the narrative across western political and media elites is that Putin is hellbent on recreating the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact. And of course as I said earlier, that both he and Russia were unprovoked and there can be no ameliorating justification or excuses for his heinous action in wishing to take Ukraine and thus destroy it. He is simply a thoroughly bad man, a dictator, murderer and thief. Does this fit what we know of Putin’s several attempts to close this thing down before it got started and even after it got started? Clearly not.

But let’s get to the main point I want to make with this commentary. I think you’ll agree that the evidence of Putin’s actions throughout pretty firmly establishes the fact that 1, he never wanted this conflict/war and 2. that when it became inevitable he tried hard to end it as soon as possible. So why not stop it now? Call a halt unilaterally. Send out the command to the Russian hierarchy that enough is enough. That Russia has gained the vast majority of territory that it needed to in light of the prospect that ending the fighting would bring elections in Ukraine and that those elections would bring to power a moderate president and government that Russia could negotiate with and make the peace permanent?

After all, there can be no doubt that Russia will set to work in all its new territories to make life much better than before for those who had to move out and also for those who can now be attracted in. Imagine the situation. The war is well and truly over (except for a few skirmishes with the more radical elements that refuse to lay down their arms and accept the new circumstances). The border between Ukraine and Russia is now open for relatives on both sides to visit, work and settle down if they wish to. This can go in both directions obviously. Everyone is incredibly glad the whole nightmarish and thoroughly hellish era of war is over. Rebuilding is going on everywhere. New roads, new schools, hospitals and culture centres are springing up along with shopping malls, swimming pool complexes and much else besides. It’s all good and who anymore feels the burning need to say this area, hamlet, village or town MUST belong to Ukraine or Russia? The new border will be set and agreed to, yes, but does Russia need to get to the eastern bank of the Dneiper before the conditions of peace and stability where people on both sides feel secure. No. Not if things work out as above.

But here is the catch, the snag, the devil in the detail. There are players involved here other than the everyday man and woman on the street. THEY may long for peace and they too may well recognise the Russian or Ukrainian population as just as human and very similar to hoy they and their own families are. The way it was pretty much before the Maidan insurrection backed wholeheartedly by the West divided the nation into two. These other players, Zelensky of course with his newfound hatred of Russia (he once said how much he loved Russians and had “thousands of Russian friends”. Then there are those of an ultranationalist nature who see modern day Russia in the very same light as those they followed on from saw the Russians of Stalin’s era. Then too we have the western powers who have found that the conflict in Ukraine is very useful in its ability to forward their ambitious regarding achieving a weakened Russia, preferably one without Putin as president where they can start to bring their own people in Russia to bear and ultimately perhaps carve it up into ethnically-divided pieces. NATO of course is the final player in this cabal of those who would wish this conflict to continue.

If not for the players above, and recognising that Putin was totally averse to conflict with the Ukrainian people and was constantly trying to get the characters above to relent and seek some kind of compromise where peace could reappear, this war could end tomorrow. And it would certainly be Putin who would end it. If he knew that it would be just the people of Ukraine who were calling the shots, I am sure he would have no qualms about doing just that, he would announce the peace. But, as things stand, with all these other players now hellbent on undermining the Russian state using the Ukrainian people as the tool to do it, via Zelensky regime, he cannot.

Putin initially sent an extremely small force into Ukraine. Ukraine is an enormous country and, if Putin had wanted to take and occupy it this would have required a minimum of some two to three million troops. Instead he sent some 150,000. The object was clearly not to take over the entire country but instead to give Zelensky a fright, a big enough fright so that he implemented what he and his predecessor had signed up to in Minsk. Putin’s plan failed due to the reason stated earlier, Boris Johnson brought the most powerful outside players in to stymie Russia’s search for peace. Without the intervention by the western powers I have no doubt that Zelensky would have caved and signed up to the peace. Remember, Russia didn’t want much back then, for Ukraine to stay neutral, to reduce its armed forces and to move to a federalized system of decentralized power where each region would have a ‘special status’ whereby they were self-governing to a degree. It could have been as simple as that. But those with power seldom agree to give any of it away. And those who see the possibility to grab power through chaos will tend to eye their opportunity to maximize their own power and influence and use that increased power against those they conceive are their enemies, rival powers.

This has been very long, my apologies. Thank you and congratulations if you have come this far.

Even if Russia reached the Dneiper, how safe will its new lands be? If conditions remain as they are now isn’t it inevitable that the West will still want to do what it is doing now, attempting to subvert, undermine and seek to weaken Russia and anything she wants to achieve? This may continue to be the general western stance. Trump may or may not put a dent in these ambitions, but left to most EU states this appears to be what they wish to see continue ad infinitum, or until they are completely defeated. How things will turn out, when we will see at least some temporary peace through negotiations, who knows? But sooner or later there WILL be negotiations and sooner or later also, the people of Ukraine will get to vote for the kind of president and government they want and I cannot believe they will want more of the same and this is what gives me hope that the future for all those except those who seek war will have much to look forward to.

WILL MISSILE STRIKES DEEP WITHIN RUSSIA START WORLD WAR THREE?

The outgoing, largely demented president of the USA with his hate-fueled mania regarding Vladimir Putin has created the conditions for a final world war that could potentially destroy us all.

If current reports are true, and the outgoing Biden administration, laden as it is with Neocons, has just authorized missile strikes deep within Russia then we stand at the most dangerous moment yet in the war between the West and Russia.

Make no mistake concerning who is at war with whom. The missiles that hit targets deep inside Russia will have GPS coordinates guiding them courtesy of NATO/ U.S. satellites, the technicians who program the missiles using U.S. software will be from the U.S., Britain or France and of course the missiles themselves are made in and supplied by the USA, UK and France.

Putin knows all this and stated it publicly during an interview in September.

Putin: NATO's Approval of Use of Long-Range Missiles by Ukraine Will Mean It is at War With Russia.

"I have already mentioned this, and any experts will confirm, both in our country and in the West, that the Ukrainian army is not capable of [independently] carrying out strikes using Western modern, long-range precision systems. It cannot do this. This is possible only with the use of intelligence from satellites which Ukraine does not have. This data is only available from satellites of the European Union or the United States, in other words, from NATO satellites. That's the first point," Putin said.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20240912/putin-natos-direct-involvement-in-ukrainian-conflict-will-mean-it-is-at-war-with-russia-1120123826.html

Joe Biden, a man hardly in control of his mental faculties, in what appears to be a last, utterly irresponsible, throw of the dice, has given the green light to what could well see the beginning of a nuclear war.  Of course it cannot be discounted that Biden was persuaded to do this by others, the most likely cadidate being Tony Blinken, arch-Neocon U.S. Secretary of State.

If the reports are true then we will soon see NATO at war with Russia for this is the inescapable conclusion Vladimir Putin has pointed out must be made in this eventuality. Whether a single Ukrainian finger clicks a computer screen somewhere after all the targeting information has been entered into the West-created, West-controlled and updated software, who knows? But in all other respects as Putin knows, this missile enters and hits targets in Russia by western hands.

No one can predict the ultimate consequences of this decision by the Biden administration. The response by Russia cannot be known. Many of the most fervent Neocons in the West believe Russia’s response will be muted, that Putin’s strong words on this subject can be ignored, that he is only bluffing and that they can safely call his bluff. We will see. It may well be that Putin will not wish to escalate in the manner we should all fear, a strike directly back at the West. He may take other, less direct revenge for the West’s blatant aggression and harm to his nation.

Putin has already said that there are other ways to hit back at the West if things reach this point. Supplying Russia’s allies across the world with advanced weaponry and technology is certainly one path he could choose. Iran could be safeguarded from further attack by Israel by providing nuclear weapons and the infrastructure to use them. The provision of advanced missile systems or other assistance to the Houthis in Yemen would be another way to hit back. As we all know well and thank goodness for it, Putin is not a man to act in a hot-headed manner. He will certainly consider all his, and Russia’s options before taking the most effective course.

Now more than ever we are blessed to have such a man at the head of the Russian state. The contrast between Vladimir Putin and the warmongering, mindless and essentially light-weight politicians of the West could not be more stark. These next few months until Biden is relieved of power along with his rabid minions will potentially be some of the most dangerous humanity has ever lived through. The primary hope, that we emerge unscathed and enter a new era where war is not seen as a top priority and where Neocons become far less influential, must keep us going meanwhile.

May you and your families, friends, colleagues and indeed all of us remain safe meanwhile…_________________________________________________________________________________

First published 20th October 2023:

WHY HAS THE WORLD DESCENDED TO THE CURRENT MADNESS WE SEE NOW?

On the face of it we are observing the mass irrational, the group equivalent of an individual ‘seeing red’, enraged and reckless, uncaring concerning his or her well being or anyone else’s. On the international level such recklessness can potentially cost millions of lives. What could possibly be at stake to justify such apparent madness?

Diplomacy used to be the way we got ourselves out of messes like this. However, since 9/11 there has been a distinct lack of it. Replaced by a stand alone and constantly applied belligerence against all who are seen as ‘not on our side’. This taking of sides with 100% conviction where that ‘other side’ is constantly demonised to create as much hate as possible within the general population has become standard.

Diplomacy was killed off as an art form or science or whatever designation it might be given. It simply ceased to exist. To use another metaphor we negan to see one prize fighter take off his gloves and put on knuckle-dusters instead and announce that the fight would not end until the opponent was dead. This is no way for those responsible for hundreds of millions of peoples’ lives to act. In the past we called these people madmen, tyrants, psychopathic dictators without an iota of empathy for those they recklessly affected by their actions.

Joe Biden is currently behaving as the most irresponsible leader of recent times in respect of all of the above. He seems to embody the worst traits described above, worse even than one of his predecessors, George W. Bush. The world according to Biden is virtually identical to that of Dubya, “You Are Either With Us Or You Are Against Us”. AS the saying goes ‘An Eye For An Eye Makes The Whole World Blind’ and this demonisation in the absence of diplomacy that Biden employs is set to blind millions in death.

After all the deceptions of the past, all the barefaced lies told, it is truly remarkable how many are willing to be emotionally charged up by basic, shallow mistruths and obvious propaganda. The manufacture of consent, and consent to possible Armageddon unbelievable, appears to be easier than ever. Are so many so numbed by feelings of helpless impotence in the face of the dangerous situations now raging on our planet that they have simply given up and decided to accept whatever fate awaits us all?

The western world is SO badly led currently with high political positions held by mental midgets that the great men and women of the past would hardly credit their eyes and ears that such ridiculously irresponsible nonentities could ever reach such positions. What has happened to this world they would surely ask, that it has descended to this state. What happened to the rules and institutions we set up to avoid things reaching this level of insanity? How could things go so catastrophically wrong with human psychology that things have reached this calamitous stage?

These are questions each person reaching this will have their own answers for. For the author it is clear. The entire panoply of western political and media elites have been fighting tooth and claw for decades now to avoid becoming irrelevant in the face of powers rising elsewhere. They are engaged in an all or nothing, do or die war to destroy those who, in the natural order of things, supplant them. They cannot bear this thought, it is anathema to them. They see all their power and the trappings, assets, status and structures of influence that go with that power melting away before them in prospect. So they fight. Tooth and nail.

This above is the conjecture I have come to through thousands of hours of thought on this issue. The western elites are akin to a dying beast, a beast that was once the supreme animal in the jungle. In the time it has left this beast is attacking any others who no longer bow down to its power using every weapon at its disposal. It gives no quarter, attempting to kill weak and strong alike in a rabid attempt to destroy in reckless, enraged abandon. In essence the western elite machine has become insane and has thrown all principles to the wind, willing now to countenance ANY level of death and destruction in the vain hope of maintaining its fast waning power.

The era of western unbridled power is ending. The worst aspects of that power have now come to the fore, all more positive aspects such as ethical and moral conduct, adherence to high principles, normal rules of behaviour in war and all else that provided a civilized face to it have been dispensed with. The naked fury of a dying beast seeing enemies everywhere has taken its place. Along with a willingness to see all others die if that is its own fate. This is the insanity we face now and see exhibited to ever greater degree and which now threatens each and every one of us.

THE TRAGEDIES OF UKRAINE FAIL TO TOUCH ICE-COLD NEOCON HEARTS

How long will the suffering & dying go on in Ukraine? It seems it will go on as long as a majority of western leaders have hearts cold as ice. Until now the thaw has been excruciatingly slow.

Even if by some miracle the regime in Kiev could gather a few hundred thousand more hapless conscripts together it must be in doubt how long they would last on the battlefield with the few weeks of basic training they now receive. These final conscripts must surely be the least experienced and least motivated yet. All that could be expected of them perhaps is that they hold a gun and don a uniform before they are blown away without firing a shot.

This conflict is clearly lost. While Russia can make widespread missile attacks time after time, what earthly chance does the Kiev regime have of mounting anything approaching an effective challenge? This whole thing has developed into a West-sponsored, long-drawn-out mass suicide for Ukraine. It is long overdue that a halt was called and the modest Russian demands are acceded to.

To observe this ongoing tragedy for any length of time is excruciating for anyone not completely caught up within a partisan mania filling them with hatred for whoever they conceive their enemy to be. This cold-blooded perspective can only be maintained at a distance where the grotesque daily horrors of the battlefield are viewed almost as if they were onscreen features of a computer game. No blood, no screams of pain, no bodies ripped apart. No loved ones back home grieving considered. A sanguine gazing at a screen with only the occasional thought of satisfaction that others and not ourselves are doing the suffering and dying.

There are those however who feel nothing at all for any of the combatants in this war that never should have been. Those who continue to promote the Ukraine war, urging its continuation into some unseen and uncertain future. People such as Anthony Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State along with the coterie of U.S. Neocons that have similarly cauterized emotions. They clearly manage the task of compartmentalizing their foreign policy ambitions from the heart-wrenching realities of the battlefield. The same clearly goes for Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commision and the majority of EU nation leaders and officials. At every turn they resist any and all calls for the abomination of this war to be brought to a close.

In the USA and in Europe however, there are a growing number of politicians who recognise the utter tragedy of the war and are determined to stand against the tide and call for it to be ended through negotiations and a permanent settlement. No one doubts that the war will end in negotiations sometime in the future, however on the Blinken/Von der Leyen side that time is never now. Politicians in Europe such as Victor Orban of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia have long called for negotiations to begin immediately and for an end to the fuelling of the war by both the USA and EU. They have been joined in recent times by the U.S. president-to-be, Donald Trump and many who he has picked to be in his administration.

With somewhere between two and three thousand deaths/injuries occurring per day it is clear that this monstrous conflict is inflicting a monstrous on all sides, Ukrainians, Russians, Poles, U.S. and UK troops, and those of many other nations, who are fighting on the front lines. The trauma involved stretches out from the battlefield to involve an increasing number who look on in horror. The fighting in Ukraine and the ongoing genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza and in the West Bank is traumatising and dividing the entire world. We have never been as divided as a species in the way we view the wars we have been in recently and on those raging now.

The attitude of the Biden administration, following on from previous U.S. administrations, is that where nations differ substantially from those in the West in regard to governance then they are fair game for covert or overt destabilization, even to the extent of fomenting war within them. Using non-governmental organizations (NGOs) societies are split apart and elements within them weaponized against their governments. In addition, punitive sanctions are applied affecting the poorest in those societies in the hope of making them rise up and bring down their national leaders. This was effected most dramatically during the Maidan insurrection against Ukraine’s democratically-elected president and government in 2014.

There are those in leadership positions across the western world who clearly find it easy to ignore the suffering of millions when it comes to the achievement of their most fervent goals regarding regime change and their desire to achieve full global domination in perpetuity. This latter goal is in truth what the wars fragmenting our world are all about. The western powers are fighting to retain their geopolitical pole position that they have held for so very long now. Since 9/11 they have been motivated not only to shore this domination up wherever it is at risk of being weakened, but to push ever forward to an unassailable position of what they call, ‘full spectrum dominance’ ie. total global control.

No amount of suffering, death, destruction, chaos or fragmentation of nations can emotionally touch those who believe that the ends, in every case, always justify the means. They will use whatever tools that come to hand in their project to reach a position where they exercise total control. No ethical, moral or legal barrier will restrict them. No plea to their collective conscience will affect them. For them war is an effective tool whereby they can disrupt the status quo and create the chaos they need in order to bring down their target leaders and raise their choices to power. This was seen most clearly after the Maidan riots where the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt  and the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland decided who would be the new government of Ukraine.

Those who see their role in the world as regime change warriors cannot afford a conscience. They have risen to the positions they currently hold due to the ability they have to eye events only with the coldest, analytical and tactical thoughts in mind. On the global chessboard they visualize only their next moves. The blood-strewn chessboard is never in sight. These are quite unique individuals whose latent compassion and capacity for fellow-feeling regarding those they disagree with has been long excised from them. They gaze down from on high, completely convinced of their being exceptional and all-knowing, wise beyond any need for advice, coldly manipulating our world in supreme arrogance. These are the sociopaths whose work we now see in both Ukraine and the Middle East. Their ice-cold hearts can devastate every last one of us if we do not remove them from power… and soon.

PUTIN, THE GEOPOLITICAL MAGICIAN

Ask 1,000 people anywhere which politician they admire most & there's one name that will come up again & again...that of Vladimir Putin. This despite all that western propaganda has claimed about him.

Russia is on the verge of a momentous victory in Ukraine. The ramifications of this victory will reverberate down every decade to come. The scale of the victory is enormous, defeating a Ukrainian army brought to NATO standards since 2014 and not only them, the entirety of the western world that poured finance and weaponry into Ukraine nonstop. This was an amazing feat led by the man the world is increasingly recognising as the greatest statesman of our day, Vladimir Putin, president of the Russian Federation.

Not only has Putin delivered the most incredible change in world affairs since the second world war, he has at the same time guided Russia through the greatest economic onslaught on any nation ever seen and come out smiling with year on year economic growth. In addition Putin has ensured friends stay close by and aiding in all of the above, simultaneously building the BRICS group to ever greater heights.

Putin deserves the title of geopolitical magician for his track record in steering Russia not only to a recovery many consider an economic miracle since the catastrophic Yeltsin years but has fully modernised the Russian army at the same time, bringing a totally new range of security assets to Russia’s arsenal, hypersonic missiles, concurrently with all else. There has arguably never been a more successful leader bringing both internal and external success with such consistent aplomb, tactical mastery and delivery of uniformly superb communication skills.

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First published 19th August 2022:

PUTIN PULLED OFF A MAGICAL TRICK ANY MAGICIAN WOULD BE PROUD OF

Two decades and more ago Russia was struggling to climb up from the state of chaos and downward plummeting that was the Yeltsin era. Of all the candidates to replace him that Yeltsin investigated there was one that though diminutive in physical size more than made up for that in terms of his character.

Putin was known by friends and possible foes alike as a rare thing within the St. Petersburg bureaucracy at the time, a person of integrity who did not abuse his position. The experience of most staffers at the U.S. embassy there chose to see Putin rather than others due to his straight dealing. These plus other qualities he had built up during his time in the Soviet Union’s intelligence agency made him Yeltsin’s choice.

Putin was strong but fair, a graduate of law school who had gone through several baptisms of fire through his career, including the fall of the system he had been charged to preserve. Though somewhat introverted and serious-minded he was not incapable of dry wit at times and was certainly not naive, not one to suffer fools or incompetence easily... and Putin also had one pet hate, betrayal. All in all Yeltsin knew he had found his man.

So Putin set to work attempting to raise Russia up by its bootstraps. The Russian mafia was having a field day and the potential to make a mint by all manner of means with no comeback from the law made bringing order to that society an immense challenge. As did the oligarchs who had arisen during Yeltsin’s time. They had used every opportunity to bring themselves wealth beyond the dreams of avarice. And they were quite averse to paying taxes.

Putin was charged with more or less single-handedly doing the equivalent of herding cats with one arm tied behind his back through a soggy marshland. Yet he accomplished this task despite the expectations of just about everyone. Could anyone else have done it? Looking at the task facing Putin at that time it must surely be very unlikely. Using all his intuitive skills he first set about making the oligarchs pay taxes. This was desperately needed as Russia had defaulted on all its loans and was in economic and financial free fall.

Putin decided on a step by step process. He called all the main oligarchs into the Kremlin for a meeting. It is said they were so cocky in that meeting that they threatened that they would destroy him if he acted against them. Putin perceived that they were scared he’d take from them the money or properties they had gained in the preceding years. In the next meeting he had worked out his step by step strategy. He told them they could keep whatever they had and that he would not act against them… but on two conditions, they would begin to pay taxes and they would not use their fabulous wealth to try to win political power.

Putin’s plan worked and Russia’s fortunes began to improve. Without the kind of threats others might have tried against the oligarchs heralding an all-out war where both sides would lose, Putin had used his well-known qualities of patience and incisive intelligence to create a solution where each side won… and of course his primary concern, that Russia should win.

Over the next many years Putin insisted on each and every department of government, the security sector and the military be imbued with something of his own determination to do the right thing, to act with integrity, to deny the seductions of corruption a victim and along with him work hard for the benefit of all Russia. Right up to today he proffers the benefits of patriotism at every level. As a young man he had joined the KGB with this in mind and now as a middle-aged man his dedication to country and honour was everything to him.

The transformation of Russia is truly something to see. If you wish to compare then and now simply go to YouTube and find the Soviet era film ‘Brat’. It shows just how things were in Russia and in St. Petersburg in the Yeltsin era. And, if you can, find a friend or neighbour who has seen something of modern day Russia. You will be astonished that virtually one man with a mission was responsible. Putin performed an absolutely astonishing, almost magical trick that defies all understanding. But the proof is there if you only look. The spirit of Putin lives and abides there and none of what transpired could have possibly been done without him.

Over the next many years Putin insisted on each and every department of government, the security sector and the military be imbued with something of his own determination to do the right thing, to act with integrity, to deny the seductions of corruption a victim and along with him work hard for the benefit of all Russia. Right up to today he proffers the benefits of patriotism at every level. As a young man he had joined the KGB with this in mind and now as a middle-aged man his dedication to country and honour was everything to him.

The transformation of Russia is truly something to see. If you wish to compare then and now simply go to YouTube and find the Soviet era film ‘Brat’. It shows just how things were in Russia and in St. Petersburg in the Yeltsin era. And, if you can, find a friend or neighbour who has seen something of modern day Russia. You will be astonished that virtually one man with a mission was responsible. Putin performed an absolutely astonishing, almost magical trick that defies all understanding. But the proof is there if you only look. The spirit of Putin lives and abides there and none of what transpired could have possibly been done without him.

UKRAINE: KEEP THOSE BLINKERS ON TIGHT AND STRAP YOURSELF IN, A STORM IS BREWING

‘A nod’s as good as a wink to a blind horse.’

What I would portray as an attack on the minds of western populations on the Ukraine war has been two-pronged and has been ongoing since 2014, and even now shows hardly any sign of ending.

1. Reflect nothing positive about the other side. Zero. Report only positive facts if at all possible regarding our side.
2. Maintain blinkers at all times and exercise wishful thinking at every juncture to maintain morale.

From winter 2013 to now this is virtually all I have seen from the western news media and political elites. Neither has any stomach for reflecting actuality. The modus operandi is to keep one side of the equation constantly mind, screen, print-redacted while talking among themselves about how Ukraine, will, is and can win.

The calculation seems to be that it is far better to do this and then only gradually find things have gone awry and Russia is winning/has won, than spoil everyone’s day and damage morale by reflecting how things truly are.

Perhaps those in this ‘war mode’ type of thinking are correct to do things this way. Who likes to hear bad news? Almost no one, especially when there is very, very near nothing you can do to change things. Only a very small minority among us have a burning desire to know the whole truth. They say ignorance is bliss. Well, maybe so. But there is a side to that ignorance which, for the last almost three years, has had consequences that fall very short of being blissful. 

It could be argued that the Ukrainians had a chance at the beginning. While Zelensky and co. had been thoroughly spooked by the surge of Russian troops into Ukraine including very near to the capital and had sent a delegation to engage in peace talks, Boris Johnson arrived in Kiev with a join message from the western powers. That message was that the regime should abandon those peace talks and that if it did so the West would back it with all the financial and military support it would need and provide it all the way to the certain victory it would then win. As we  know, Zelensky took the offer, abandoned the peace talks and proceeded to wage war against Russia confident he had the West’s full backing.

Foolishly in retrospect, Russia had withdrawn its troops from the vicinity of Kiev as a goodwill gesture when peace talks began. Those troops were there only to intimidate Zelensky and co. into fulfilling Ukraine’s obligations as agreed in the UN-ratified Minsk Accords. So, with Zelensky’s team having initialled a working document the Russians decided on this reciprocal gesture. A big mistake as things turned out. It appears that Putin and his closest advisers had not calculated on the western powers caring enough about the Donbass region to be willing to wage war over it. Hadn’t Merkel, Hollande, Macron, Poroshenko and Zelensky all agreed via the Minsk Accords that they were the only peaceful way forward and wasn’t Russia entitled to force the issue when Zelensky, after six years of the process with an agreed, UN-ratified outcome suddenly said he was no longer interested in it?

Anyway, war it was. Not chosen by Russia. Except extremely reluctantly and even then halting within a couple of months to stop and try to agree to peace. Russia never wanted things to turn out this way. The idea was to see the Russian-speaking majority in the Donbass free of the shelling they were under and had, by 2022, been under for eight solid years. Zelensky’s shrug of the shoulders and goodbye to all that regarding the Minsk Accords, so hard won over the previous six plus years, and then a couple of weeks before Russia invaded saying he had a mind to regain Ukraine’s nuclear status, did it for Putin it seems. Having NATO on Russia’s doorstep would be intolerable causing endless disquiet and without doubt campaigns designed to disrupt, destabilise, divide and fragment Russia from close quarters. What do you think Russia saw in the encroachment of NATO, a NATO that relatively recently bombed the hell out of Libya and that during the Cold War had been the Soviet Union’s biggest threat? Not to mention that the Cold War mentality within not only NATO but the entire military-intelligence-political infrastructure of the West could hardly be trusted to have melted away when that war was supposedly over?

But none of the above plays any part in the narratives heard from official sources in the West. Instead we heard the same phrase repeated over and over, “Russia made an unprovoked attack on Ukraine”. Unprovoked? Yeah, right. Putin, the evil Putin, just woke up one morning, mind filled with his latest dream of a resurrected Soviet Union, back in all its glory, immediately reached for a map and focused his demonic eyes on Ukraine. Again, yeah right. But this kind of image works well, as George W. Bush found out after 9/11 in creating a believable, simplistic narrative, “They’re jealous of our freedoms”. How many new Hitlers has this methodology created over the years? You know their names. No need to mention them again here. This while the automatic opposite is conferred on us, the spotless heroes, the guys with the ‘right stuff’, modern day real life honest-to-goodness heroes who wouldn’t normally hurt a fly, believe in democracy, freedom and human rights and never do anything wrong on purpose. Ever.

War Mode

War mode is where you and your allies never do anything wrong and your enemy is constantly doing wrong for totally evil reasons and is so very bad, unrecoverably and irredeemably so that everyone should castigate, oppose him and never have anything whatsoever to do with him. It’s just as the Bible says, good and evil, light and dark, black and white, right and wrong… and nothing in between. This makes things nice and simple for those folks who want an easy answer to settle any confusion and then get right back to being blissfully ignorant. After perhaps giving their blessing to kill all those bad folks and make things better as soon as possible, will you? And oh yes, that Saint Zelensky and those pure as the driven snow Ukrainians, here’s a bunch of my hard-won currency for those poor vulnerable souls who are being cruelly victimised by those barbaric and Hell-bound Russians!

The Consequences

So, TV news, magazines, newspapers and books all tell the same story. Putin and his minions are all evil and here is the (evidence-free) storyline to prove it. Ukraine is winning. The Russian troops are badly trained, badly led, are dying in their thousands daily let down by a diminishing number of shells and artillery. More storylines depict valiant Ukrainian troops pushing the “meat wave” Russian attacks back and look at this burning tank and listen to how it’s all going wrong for the Russians. Except it wasn’t and hasn’t been for a long time now. Yet this can’t be said, remember? In ‘war mode’ you mustn’t mention the enemy’s gains. Keep those blinkers on tight. All is well. As in Afghanistan where reports up the line were always given a positive spin somehow or other… for twenty years or so until the truth could no longer be concealed, and then the panic-driven imperative was just to get the hell out of there.

The consequences for Ukraine of all the wishful thinking, deception, blatant mis- and disinformation, and blatant distortion of reality and war-mode morale-motivating was that ever more Ukrainians (and Russians) would die needlessly. By early 2023 at the very latest it had become clear that neither was the Russian economy imploding nor were its trading partners ostracising it. No Maidan II had taken place to oust the “evil” Putin. In fact his popularity was higher than ever, especially since the war was going well and Russia’s economic growth figures were excellent. At that point, whether it was toward the end of 2022 or sometime in 2023, that was when the western powers had to act to halt their project and deliver the extremely bad news to Zelensky that their calculations had been all wrong and that Russia was clearly NOT going to be beaten, no matter what they did now. But no, that was an uncomfortable thought. Anathema. Better to double down and hope something unexpected turns up. That unexpected thing never did turn up, no matter what “game changing” weapon they provided and no matter how many billions were provided.

So, the dying has gone on, the needless deaths of hundreds of thousands, the horrendous injury to many more. Without anything approaching real hope or realistic expectations. In Ukraine quite old men were sent, hardly trained to die as cannon-fodder on the front lines. Even in at least one case a young man with Down Syndrome. Women also have not been spared. And in recent times medics, pilots and air defence technicians. For a good six months Zelensky’s thugs in uniform have been dragging people bodily off the streets to be dragooned into the army given a few weeks training then sent to their deaths. (No son or daughter of the wealthier, or more elite members of western Ukraine society can be seen at the front, a point that has begun to rankle among those who have been.) Desertions are becoming ever more frequent and who can blame them? It’s not so easy, nor is it at all a guaranteed route back to family and friends. Death squads whose task is to capture and shoot such people and indeed those who refuse orders, even if those orders are suicidal, are never far away. These are composed of the ultrnationalists, often bearing swastika tattoos. No excuses are accepted by such as those.

War is a racket as Smedley D. Butler said and wrote. And never was there such an unconscionably callous, cynical and dishonest racket as this one. Western populations were treated to ‘The Mushroom Syndrome’ (Kept in the dark and fed a load of shit.) and a Ukrainian population treated as sheep to the slaughter… all for the sake of what? The unrelenting ambition of the western powers to remain top dogs and do whatever they deemed necessary to undermine those who might rival them in terms of power and influence. The full horror of what has happened and that is continuing to happen will not dawn on western populations for a while yet. But that day is coming. Nothing now can stop it. But meanwhile the mushrooms will continue to be fed in their dark domain. Even while Saint Zelensky behinds to lose his sheen and shows evidence of tarnish here and there, even when seen through Ukrainian eyes. The day of revelation is coming. Its arrival is certain. But the blissfully ignorant needn’t worry too much. A story of Ukrainian winning and saving Europe from Russia by preserving Ukraine will be spun, even when Russia never had the ambition of taking anything more than Crimea at first and even after, a few Russian-speaking regions of the east. But that WILL be the story. The Russians were defeated. They were unable to take the whole of Ukraine for themselves. We won. Zelensky won. The West won. Even Biden won. Ukraine survived. All is well.

We have made it safe for you to go back to your blissful sleep.

Goodnight and sleep well… while you can.

TRUMP IS NOT AGAINST WAR PER SE, IT’S ONLY EXPENSIVE WARS HE DOESN’T LIKE

What is it called when you pursue a policy where you actively aim to weaken, subvert, undermine or achieve regime change in another nation if not 'war'?

Trump would like the Ukraine war to come to an end. Not due to his remorse concerning lives lost, solely due to the cost to the USA of that war which shows no sign of ending. He is, as we used to say in the Sixties, a Breadhead. He thinks in terms of the bottom line, of dollars and cents gained or spent. He sees that the Ukraine war is being lost but that the Europeans are determined to see it continue. If the Europeans get their way the U.S. cannot help but contribute still more billions to the Ukrainians. To leave the Europeans high and dry and having to carry the entire burden of continuing the war would bring significant risk to Trump’s reputation and the USA’s standing and interests in Europe. So, he wants to end this war.

Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine so he can concentrate on the other wars he has chiefly in mind, the economic war against China and Israel’s hot war against Iran. These two wars he finds very worth his time and some finance supporting. His cabinet is currently being filled with anti-China, anti-Iran and pro-Israel warmongers. If you thought Trump was anti-war per se you could not be more wrong. As well as the wars of various kinds against China and Iran you can add the war against Venezuela which he will undoubtedly pick up on again along with his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, one of the main regime change wannabes against Venezuela along with John Bolton in Trump’s previous term.

The Ukraine war has been massively expensive for the U.S. government even while it has been massively profitable for the USA’s military industrial complex. However, with a national debt just about to touch $36 trillion Trump can hardly afford to keep shelling out just for the sake of the burgeoning bank accounts of America’s merchants of death. He needs to do something for the folks at home who voted for him, those who have been suffering price hikes that have squeezed them hard for the last four years. He wants to spend money at home and improve things there, even if the Neocons who still hold major sway within the deep state still see foreign policy interference worldwide as a far higher priority. Having said this, just like last time, Trump has tapped Neocons like Rubio for some of the most important positions in his upcoming administration.

If Trump manages to cajole, threaten, wheedle, argue or bribe the two warring parties in Ukraine into having negotiations and this, just possibly (he hopes) leading to at least a temporary ceasefire, the conditions may then be set for a more favourable way to end U.S. payments to Ukraine. He surely can’t possibly believe his boasts about ending the war completely. Anyone who knows the fundamentals of how each of the sides sees this prospect in the most negative of terms sees how unobtainable this is in anything approaching the short term. Russia cannot afford to allow the regime in Kiev to rearm and bolster its fortifications readying itself for another counteroffensive. The Ukrainians cannot allow any suggestion that what they maintain to still be territory belonging to them be acknowledged to be Russian. No matter what Trump says, be it composed of threats or bribes, he can’t square this circle and at best can only hope for some modification of the circumstances that lets him off the hook regarding the constant draining away of U.S. finances.

Trump is desperate to help Israel pursue its genocidal policies against the Palestinians.He and his team will provide Israel with 100% support across all issues, no matter what new atrocities they commit. Likewise he and his team are lusting to hit Iran hard in whatever way short of outright war they can manage. This without doubt will be done via their unanimous and unending support of the Netanyahu regime in Jerusalem. Iran will be hit by every possible sanction the USA and its allies can through at it. On China the Trump policy of setting tariffs and bans on Chinese good, continued by Biden, will, without doubt, be ramped up to further heights while using semantic doublespeak with the Chinese over Taiwan. Trump will leverage the pressure on the Chinese regarding Taiwan to ever higher levels. Trump is very likely to use rhetoric against China that comes as close as he dares to instigating outright hostilities, but not quite. He will certainty wage economic war against China, that cannot possibly be in doubt.

Anyone who believed Trump would bring peace, sweetness and light, universal understanding and tolerance to the world and, who knows,  acknowledge the USA’s place as just another nation among many seeking to get by in a multipolar world will have their hopes dashed big time. No. ‘America First’ remains Trump’s aim. First and foremost, “democratic” dictator, global police force and ultimate arbiter of what should be, and what shouldn’t. Trump will not deviate from the external U.S. policy of protecting its interests and suborning all other nations to its will to do so. The sovereignty of others will continue to bow to the security and national interests of the USA under Trump, just as it has been for every U.S. administration in living memory. Whether you call what Trump and the USA does to others in order to achieve this ‘war’ or not… that is, if we are being completely honest about it, exactly what it is. 

NO MORE MINSK BETRAYALS - NO CEASEFIRE - ONWARD TO VICTORY!

Trump will insist on trying to end the Ukraine war but will fail. This war must not end in anything but a total Russian victory. Nothing less will do in order to ensure Russia's future security.

It appears certain that ‘for show’ peace negotiations will begin between Ukrainian and Russian representatives within the next several months. Trump needs these to start for reasons such as his standing re. presidential campaign promises made. Ukraine and Russia, for public relations reasons and due to Trump pressure will agree to take part. Under no circumstances however should Russia agree to a ceasefire, the reason being that this would allow the Ukrainian military to regroup and rearm as well as reinforce its fortifications. 

Putin’s willingness to be reasonable was abused for years while he became enmeshed in a fruitless charade in Minsk. Betrayed by Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko initially and later also by Macron and Zelensky, Putin must ensure no more such tricks are played. No matter how much he may desire peace and an end to this conflict he knows he cannot afford to put the security of Russia and of the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass at risk. To allow the western powers in combination with the Ukrainian regime to freeze the conflict would risk just that.

I suspect that both Ukrainian and Russian delegations at such a peace negotiation would be play-acting. I do not believe either side sees a stable and lasting peace being within reach as things stand currently. But to pacify their allies both must make a show of appearing to be engaged in delivering this impossible outcome. Meanwhile the war will continue with Russia continuing to win using the same slow-grinding attritional tactics as before though increasingly speeded through further collapses in Ukrainian troop morale, desertions and the taking of vital locations allowing faster advance.

Russia needs to take the fight all the way to the Dnieper River to ensure the maximum security of Russia as it will then stand, all the way from the eastern bank of the Dnieper to the most easterly town in Russia, Anadyr. I believe Putin and the Russian higher command know this now, and have for some time, ever since it became clear that the Kiev regime and its western sponsors had no intention of coming to a peaceful settlement but were determined to use the situation as a means to undermine and sufficiently weaken Russia to then break her apart. There is precisely nothing to be gained and everything to lose for Russia in freezing things as they stand now. It would only result in a permanent state of danger for Russia.

If a ceasefire was agreed before, during or after negotiations between the sides we would see an immediate influx of NATO troops greatly boosting the regime’s armed forces. Every opportunity would be taken to deliver and position NATO weaponry also. Every advantageous option would be maximised to thwart Russia’s required goal of reaching the Dnieper. The theatre of upcoming pseudo negotiations will be played in similar style as those which concluded in Istanbul just a few short months after Russia’s operation in Ukraine began. It is very likely that it will once again be the Ukrainians who break them off. Finding some fraudulent justification for this will not be a problem and western news media and political elites will mirror whatever Kiev says. At that point Trump will have to cook up some excuse of his own which he too will not find too onerous. 

With the spurious “peace negotiations” out of the way all parties will resume their various strategies. The war, having continued throughout the farcical negotiations, will sooner or later bring about total collapse in Ukrainian military morale with almost every major Ukrainian-held city in the Donbass having been liberated. Russia, having broken through Ukraine’s fortification line in southern Donbass, will move speedily forward through the land beyond to finally arrive at the Dnieper. Shortly thereafter, even if Slavyansk (Sloviansk) and Kramatorsk have not yet been fully liberated, they will then quickly fall to Russia. Only Kiev will remain as a subject of negotiations to be held once a new president and government have been elected in what remains of Ukraine.

There must be no more debilitating delays initiated by untrustworthy Kiev regime or western sources. Nothing of this kind should be agreed to by Russia and not in Putin’s wildest dreams contemplated. Russia has been subject to enough abuse on this score. The war must continue no matter what ersatz diplomacy seems to be at play. Pretend negotiations? Fine. But never, under ANY circumstances must there be a ceasefire. Russia must hold firm to the task at hand, crush the enemy day on day until the Dnieper is reached and all land then held secured and made impregnable to attack. At that point Trump can say whatever he likes, it will have been Russia that ended the war. Then, with all taken and secured Russian troops right across the entire Russian Federation can proudly roar… “VICTORY IS OURS!”