WEST-CENTRIC MYOPIA IS MEETING THE BRICK WALL OF A NEW REALITY

It has been a long run… but it is almost over.

For decade after decade the western world has prided itself on being numero uno. In fact this impression was so ingrained within its cultures that it became a given, the constant background of almost unlimited power and influence to be wielded at will.

This brought about a virtual monopoly on such power and influence. It was blithely applied to all and sundry as if it was as natural as rain and to boot considered as manna from the western heaven.

Western elites built up a myth of goodness, probity and helpfulness that covered a multitude of sins that all humanity is prey to. No group of human beings are immune to ambition, to a desire to expand their area of control and to battle, in one way or another, with those they conceive of as competition or adversaries. But to depict themselves as belonging to the highest states that humanity can aspire to and then engage in mass slaughter in recent years, was not a good look.

Then there were the lies. The numerous lies.

Of course these and much else besides that belied the self-sanctification of western elites was well known… for those with eyes to see and ears to hear. MK Ultra, Operation Paperclip and Mockingbird… the assassination attempts, the coup conspiracies, the wars… the many wars. Eyes had surely been opened. Ears assailed by these facts from a plethora of commentators. But no. The myths prevailed in the general public consciousness of the majority in the West. Their guys were good guys… weren’t they?

And so things went on from one exceptional duty to enforce an inalienable right to another with a trail of blood always left to remind anyone who needed reminding that they should mind their behaviour or they might be next.

It seemed as if this state of affairs might continue forever with the West led indefatigably by the U.S. and UK knights of the holy sword defeating all the world’s demons with a little help from their friends. But hey, something very strange has happened to put all such seeming certainties into question.

In part it has been the taking of an extremely large and blunt hammer to problems such as those perceived by western elites in the Middle East. As the saying goes, when all you have is a hammer each problem looks like a nail. Blunt force has been recognised as such across many nations… though most have held their peace… until now.

With Russia asserting her right of self-protection and that of its people in Ukraine we see a situation where the thus far hidden disagreements with past western interventions are being shown in broad daylight visible to all.

Even the apparently very close ally of the West, Saudi Arabia is showing a striking, and in fact shocking, reluctance to bow westward as it has for many decades now. India too, a nation relied upon by the western powers to be neutral if not an ally to be wooed, is now showing it has no intention of abandoning Russia as a nation to work and trade with. Within Europe Hungary strongly resists being pulled into a condemnatory alliance against Russia. And in Africa various states are looking to Russia to help solve their economic and nutritional problems and build their infrastructure along with China.

The sea change in international politics has been astonishing to watch and continues in the vein apparently with no perceptible end to this process and progress toward a multipolar world where power is shared and the impetus is behind agreement and trade with arm-twisting, threats and accusations very much a thing of the West-dominated past.

Jaws must surely be dropping and anger and confusion rising to previously unheard of peaks as it becomes a matter of crystal clear observation that the power and influence held almost as of right by the West has largely already slipped from its grasp.

It has been a long run… but it is almost over.

For decade after decade the western world has prided itself on being numero uno. In fact this impression was so ingrained within its cultures that it became a given, the constant background of almost unlimited power and influence to be wielded at will.

This brought about a virtual monopoly on such power and influence. It was blithely applied to all and sundry as if it was as natural as rain and to boot considered as manna from the western heaven.

Western elites built up a myth of goodness, probity and helpfulness that covered a multitude of sins that all humanity is prey to. No group of human beings are immune to ambition, to a desire to expand their area of control and to battle, in one way or another, with those they conceive of as competition or adversaries. But to depict themselves as belonging to the highest states that humanity can aspire to and then engage in mass slaughter in recent years, was not a good look.

Then there were the lies. The numerous lies.

Of course these and much else besides that belied the self-sanctification of western elites was well known… for those with eyes to see and ears to hear. MK Ultra, Operation Paperclip and Mockingbird… the assassination attempts, the coup conspiracies, the wars… the many wars. Eyes had surely been opened. Ears assailed by these facts from a plethora of commentators. But no. The myths prevailed in the general public consciousness of the majority in the West. Their guys were good guys… weren’t they?

And so things went on from one exceptional duty to enforce an inalienable right to another with a trail of blood always left to remind anyone who needed reminding that they should mind their behaviour or they might be next.

It seemed as if this state of affairs might continue forever with the West led indefatigably by the U.S. and UK knights of the holy sword defeating all the world’s demons with a little help from their friends. But hey, something very strange has happened to put all such seeming certainties into question.

In part it has been the taking of an extremely large and blunt hammer to problems such as those perceived by western elites in the Middle East. As the saying goes, when all you have is a hammer each problem looks like a nail. Blunt force has been recognised as such across many nations… though most have held their peace… until now.

With Russia asserting her right of self-protection and that of its people in Ukraine we see a situation where the thus far hidden disagreements with past western interventions are being shown in broad daylight visible to all.

Even the apparently very close ally of the West, Saudi Arabia is showing a striking, and in fact shocking, reluctance to bow westward as it has for many decades now. India too, a nation relied upon by the western powers to be neutral if not an ally to be wooed, is now showing it has no intention of abandoning Russia as a nation to work and trade with. Within Europe Hungary strongly resists being pulled into a condemnatory alliance against Russia. And in Africa various states are looking to Russia to help solve their economic and nutritional problems and build their infrastructure along with China.

The sea change in international politics has been astonishing to watch and continues in the vein apparently with no perceptible end to this process and progress toward a multipolar world where power is shared and the impetus is behind agreement and trade with arm-twisting, threats and accusations very much a thing of the West-dominated past.

Jaws must surely be dropping and anger and confusion rising to previously unheard of peaks as it becomes a matter of crystal clear observation that the power and influence held almost as of right by the West has largely already slipped from its grasp.

WESTERN WAR MODE MYOPIA & THE IMMINENT REVELATION OF MASSIVE DECEPTION

As Bakhmut falls to Russia’s Wagner Group and the regular Russian army we can see the mass denial of this fact being attempted across all western mainstream media. Almost any story will do in an attempt to deny the truth and present some deceptive facade to western populations in its place.

The truth about the fall of Bakhmut will percolate out eventually but like a patient waking from anaesthesia it is clearly hoped that a groggy western populace will hardly notice at that point. However, sooner or later there will be widespread incomprehension and disbelief combined as the situation in Ukraine proves to have a very different face to it than western audiences have been told.

A general ‘war mode’ mentality has prevailed in the West for many years now, in fact for almost two entire decades and the object of this attempt to obscure the facts which war mode always entails, has been Russia and its president.

Compared to the full blown war mode mentality present since Russia began its military operation in Ukraine it was been running at a relatively low, if consistent level to demonise both the Russian president and Russian state institutions from at least 2007. Since February 24th 2022 though it has been all-pervasive with mass self-inflicted myopia being a fixture among all western elites. Both the political and media elites have acted only to spread a totally fictional account of events in Ukraine, degrading their communication channels to the level of mental conditioning if not outright propaganda.

Those who continued to take it for granted that their mainstream news services were giving them a factual account of events in Ukraine are those who will experience the maximum disbelief and incomprehension within the next few weeks and months.

War mode, for those who are unfamiliar with the term, requires of all elites within a country at war, and indeed from most members of the public also (though this is not as possible now as in the past) a dedication to communicating only positive news about the nation or its allies and only negativity or no comment at all concerning the actions of the enemy.

Thus it has appeared that plucky little Ukraine with magnificently brave soldiers, courageously led by a noble and selfless president has been winning out against the main villain of the piece, slandered consistently since 2007, the Russian ogre, Putin.

Some of the above may have some substance to it here and there, though extremely little if truth be told. The more important point is that this leaves out an enormous part of the picture of events in Ukraine and also delivers a hugely false picture of present realities, future likelihoods and almost certain conclusion.

The situation in Ukraine is in fact not good at all for the forces that Kiev commands. Things are not going well and have not been going well since the start of Russia’s campaign in February 2022. That is, apart from a few minor, isolated and vastly overblown incidents that have played little conclusive either role at the time or will do in the final outcome.

Russia will have ejected, killed or captured all Ukrainian troops within the Donbass no later than a point three months from today and likely much sooner than this. With developments underway where Ukrainian troops are beginning to surrender in ever greater numbers and the most defensible city was taken by Russia in the last few days, the end is clearly near.

The remaining cities to be taken by Russia in the Donbass are not nearly as defensible as was Bakhmut.

There are rumours of great discontent regarding a number of factors within the Ukrainian high command which if true appear certain to grow. More and more inadequately men are being marshalled into the Ukrainian military and sent to the front lines as cannon fodder. Desperation is clearly growing as the interference of Zelensky and those around him with military affairs is causing losses through callous, cynical and incompetent decisions.

Meanwhile, instead of telling western audiences about any of this and most importantly the likely imminent loss of the entire Donbass region the West’s mass media falls completely silent on all but vacuous and false propagandising using fake positive narratives.

It appears, though this is only rumoured currently, that the advice on tactics being given by the USA and UK to the Ukrainian military command, has been extremely poor with flawed understanding of the Russian tactics of war. All the evidence points to western leaders pushing the Ukrainian authorities to throw as many troops into a hopeless counteroffensive as possible. Mass carnage would be the most likely result.

Western politicians need to somehow get themselves off the hook by saying they gave Ukraine everything to succeed. Zelensky and his people will then say that they were let down by those leaders in the West by not providing enough. These are the dynamics that will play themselves out as the facade of success by Ukraine crumbles in the face of the ever more obvious realities soon to emerge and dismay western audiences.

Rather than plucky Ukraine going from victory to victory as portrayed in every mainstream rifle and TV network across the West it has gone from one loss to another in recent months and is now facing total defeat, partially as a result of Russian military professionalism and partly through the massive campaign of deception engaged in by U.S. and British “leadership” and media elites and those of their European proxies.

THE OLD MOVIE WAS IN BLACK & WHITE. THE NEW ONE WILL BE IN FULL COLOUR.

George W. Bush was the master of simplicity. You are either with us or you are against us.

Everything was reduced to the level that even the less than average person could understand, i.e. reduced to black and white, good and evil, right and wrong. Universal opposites.

This method for controlling the narrative fed to the masses was well known to both Himmler and Goering at the outset of the second world war. The rhetoric is designed to dupe and then manipulate so that the agreed plans of the western political elites involved can be put in motion without anything approaching democracy or choice by western populations can be involved. Their so-called superiors “know what’s best for them” and so deliver them into a state of war-approval mania.

Being humble, never having given much thought to geopolitical issues, the majority in the West are simply thankful that someone can explain things in black and white terms and let them know in what direction their nation is going (to war) and to what degree they ought to emote.

Knowing very little those now sketchily “informed” can provide the required approval regarding the black and evil foe they have been told about… that unredeemable and unrepentant monster ‘over there’ that is doing “really bad things”.

The collective west resembles a Machiavellian conductor of an orchestra, this is the primary mainstream media channels that deliver the “correct” message right on cue. They continue to deliver the “correct”, pure black and white message at the direction of their state elites as long as it takes to achieve the goal that suits the “national interest”.

The present situation in Ukraine, unlike the many regime change wars the USA, UK and their allies have waged in recent times is framed as in almost diametrically opposite terms. The West was framed as totally right to attack and invade Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and wage proxy wars in both Syria and Yemen… and this was in general the narrative complied with by western mass media.

Regarding Ukraine, the West is framed as totally correct to support the authorities in Ukraine who arrived in power via a violent insurrection and have helped them in their goal of pushing Russia into a corner. This was achieved by multiple means that denied Russia any path to a negotiated peace.

Despite all the barriers put in their way Russia continued for eight long years to enable a peaceful settlement of the Donbass question. The western powers had no interest in this and instead built the Ukrainian forces to NATO standards with the intent of taking the Donbass region by force and effectively killing off the pro-Russian culture of the Russian-speaking majority there.

Nothing was hard of the above fact within western mainstream news. Instead all that was heard was the same black and white, good and evil narrative that had been agreed at the very start of the plan, a plan to weaken and then dismember the Russian state.

However, this facade of theatrical simplicity is starting to dissolve in front of all the blinded eyes that were fed so many lies by western mass media. Russia, having broken out from its trap and taken on the combined might of NATO within Ukraine… is winning and will soon be seen to be winning by all. It will no longer be possible to sustain the western facade of ‘Ukraine is winning’ and ‘Bad Guy Russia’ is losing. That movie is over. A new one is just about to begin.

IS A BRAND NEW GEOPOLITICAL PARADIGM AVOIDABLE?

The USA and UK in particular clearly think that they are in danger of losing their ability to dominate, manipulate, threaten, undermine and replace the leadership of all other nations..

At the very least they hope it can be postponed by doing all they can to undermine, weaken and if possible destroy all those who threaten their long held status. Their goal currently is again clearly, to weaken the possibility of this eventuality and if at all possible destroy the foundations of the central elements which currently make their loss of dominance appear inevitable.

That these efforts by the USA and UK and in ever declining form by Europe, to weaken and if possible stop this new paradigm, could cause another world war in its most devastating form (with a form of world warfare already being waged by them) clearly doesn't faze them to any significant extent.

The stakes for them are obviously considered too high to let any considerations of widespread death and destruction mitigate the extent or range of their plans. In my view the political elites in tandem with their media elites consider this to be an existential issue requiring an all-out effort to maintain western global dominance without which they have convinced themselves the world will go all to hell.

They have come to believe through centuries of happy self-awarding conditioning that they stand at the pinnacle of right conduct, good governance and ethical behaviour, the natural inheritors down from one generation to the next of the guardianship of the planet. In accordance with these beliefs those who do not stand with them must certainly then be standing against them and standing therefore against all that is righteous and good.

I am unaware of any empire that believed they were not right in all they said and did. How many bureaucracies and established elites indulged in self-doubt down the millennia. I would hazard to guess that the answer is an easy one, namely none.

And how many of the serried ranks of controllers of such empires gave up their notions of superiority, grandeur and benefits of high, self-granted status and control of others without a fight. You may say the British Empire is one such... but I did say 'without a fight'. The British Empire ended in most places faced with a determined force fighting for this outcome.

The empire of the West has lasted a very long time and has been reinforced significantly during that time, the chief of these being the outcome and aftermath of the Second World War. Hitler and Nazi Germany were defeated. Leaving aside that the Russian victories over German forces and entry first to Berlin was the main factor in ending it, in the West the impression given was that of a victory by the West.

The empire of the West has however been looking increasingly tarnished of late. This especially so since 9/11 when the USA, UK and others began their campaign of regime change wars with their attendant lies, deceptions, manipulations and outright propaganda assisted by a complicit western press and media. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan added another nail to its coffin. It seems inevitable that eventual withdrawal from Iraq and Syria will add further nails to it.

Currently we see another series of nails being readied in the shape of a European withdrawal from U.S. and UK battle plans regarding both Ukraine and Russia. The humiliation I predicted a number of commentaries ago appears imminent. Upon this further set of nails being applied to the coffin of the western empire I would suggest that few more will be necessary to complete the job.

What then?

Over the last several decades we have seen the inexorable rise of the Chinese economy. That of Russia has followed a similar if not nearly as impressive increase in its economic success. Now that both nations fully recognise the mutually beneficial results of ever-closer cooperation there can surely be no further restrictions on their continued success and ever-growing influence. Their growing influence will I predict 'bring on' the foundations for the new 'empire free' geopolitical paradigm I expect, predict and am hoping for.

At the point where an unlamented western empire rests dormant in its well-sealed coffin I would predict we will see a world breathing a deep and long sigh of relief. This while the work of restoring the world to a place where agreement and not disputation become the order of the day, where trade not trouble is at the forefront of press and media around the globe and where a general tolerance of diverse forms of governance is found.

In short the beginnings of a world where the prospects for war diminish, where that which unites us is emphasised rather than that which divides us and an acknowledgement is recognised that most of humanity wishes only to reside in peace, nurturing their families, seeking betterment of their lives, not at the expense of other nations and where no one particular political dogma is demanded for all nations.

So, in answer to the question within the title of this commentary I would say no, in due course, in the absence of the USA and UK refraining from using their ultimate weapon of domination, a brand new geopolitical paradigm for our world is not avoidable and is indeed absolutely unavoidable.

UKRAINE: CURRENT FACTORS, SOUGHT DOMINANCE AND POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

 

Currently, as of mid-May 2023 the situation in Ukraine is approximately, and in brief, as follows:

The Russian military has taken a broad swathe of territory in the Donbass directly by the Russian border. The safeguarding of the Donbass region’s population from attack by Kiev forces, which it has been since Spring 2014 is a primary goal of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. Approximately 70% of this goal has been accomplished with approximately 60% of the territory falling into the Russian military’s hands relatively easily within the first 6 months of the campaign. In approximately the last 8 months however, progress has been far slower as resistance from the deeply embedded Ukrainian forces has required a much more sustained campaign, including the targeting of many diverse areas of those structures (energy, fuel and transport) that underpin the forward military structures including manpower and weaponry.

The present situation sees the Russian forces (both Wagner and regular Russian army along with the Russian air force) fighting a war of attrition where the gaining of territory is secondary to the reduction of Ukrainian manpower and its potentiality to fight. Ukrainian forces are generally defending, however, in recent weeks a counteroffensive by them has been expected and some signs indicate that it may now be underway in one form or another, currently in tentative and exploratory form in most cases, along the battlefront.

It is clear that the collective west, the USA, UK and their allies in Europe are working to the maximum to support the Kiev regime in its efforts to fight the Russian forces who have been making incremental gains in the Donbass, to refuse to give ground, and ultimately to push the Russian forces back beyond the borders of Ukraine as they were before February 24th 2022 when Russia’s military operation began. And subsequently demand the return of the Crimean peninsula within the borders of Ukraine.

The Russian operation has been categorised by an incremental increasing level of force while seeking at each stage to encourage the Kiev regime to negotiate a settlement, reflecting as its basis the agreements made by the regime in the process of the Minsk Accords of 2015. Pressure is now building within the Russian population for their leaders to take a much more forceful approach by waging a full scale war aganst the regime in Kiev rather than continue in the limited campaign seen to date.

The Kiev regime continue to refuse negotiations, only demanding that Russia withdraw and effectively surrender all gains, a position which the Russian authorities naturally reject. The western powers continue to back the regime in this stance of rejecting meaningful negotiations and continue to advocate a military solution whereby Ukraine makes sufficient gains to provide it with as strong a negotiating position as possible for the negotiations which must inevitably end the conflict at some future date. The western powers continue to supply ever more powerful weapons to the regime, including missiles from the United Kingdom capable of hitting targets with the borders of the Russian Federation.

Having covered the present, what of the future?  

Scenario 1 - A complete Ukrainian victory.

In this scenario the Ukrainian forces mount an effective counteroffensive which ends with Russia losing its access to the southern regions of the Donbass in the neighbourhood of the Crimean peninsula and there is every sign that they will not be able to regain control on any acceptable basis regarding manpower or timescale. At the suggestion of Kiev, negotiations begin which eventuate in Russia giving up all the territory it has taken since February 24th 2022 along with its claim to the Crimean peninsula.

Scenario 2 - A complete Russian victory.

In this scenario the Russian forces succeed in taking all remaining cities, towns and villages in the Donbass region. This comes about through a general collapse within the Ukrainian military and within the regime itself. This results in the general capitulation of the Kiev regime. Following this collapse it is recognised that the remaining territory left to Ukraine cannot sustain itself in any viable form and must be divided into protectorates. These protectorates will be governed by authorities in Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, ostensibly on a temporary basis until a viable Ukrainian state can once again sustain itself. Russia proceeds to rebuild its new territories and provide the new Russian citizens there with all Russian health, education, pension and all other benefits due to Russian citizens.

In this scenario Russia can then decide whether to conclude its campaign with the retention in perpetuity of the four republics, Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhia or, of taking all the largely undefended and undefendable land up to the eastern bank of the Dnieper River, splitting the country formally known as Ukraine virtually in two.

Scenario 3 - A partial Ukrainian victory.

In this scenario the Ukrainian military achieves the outcome delineated in Scenario 1 but without the subsequent negotiations providing the regime with a result that conforms to its absolutist aim of driving Russia from all the territories it has taken plus Crimea.

Sub-scenarios:

Russia responds to the loss of land through the Ukrainian counteroffensive by regrouping and then taking the fight once more to the entrenched Ukrainian forces. A campaign is fought to retake the lost lands, the end result of which depends on the comparative strengths of the two armies.

If Ukraine, backed by the western powers, manages to resist all Russian attempts to retake the territory lost to it during the Ukrainian counteroffensive then negotiations would then likely be initiated. In this scenario however, Russia insists upon retaining all other territory gained and held since February 24th 2022. Ukraine then has two choices, accept this or abandon negotiations and renew its attempts to push Russia out of all its areas of control within the boundaries of Ukraine as they were in 2014.  

If Russia manages to retake the land lost to Ukraine during its counteroffensive, pushing its forces back to their position before its offensive and perhaps further still then the prospects for Ukraine to achieve even a partial victory at that point appear exceptionally slim. Having suffered undoubtedly severe losses during its counteroffensive and with the western powers finding themselves unable to any longer replenish Ukrainian losses in terms of weaponry it is hard to see how the regime could continue to resist Russian demands that it capitulate.

Scenario 4 - A partial Russian victory.

In this scenario the Russian forces repel the Ukrainian counteroffensive inflicting losses on its forces but in less degree that would undermine the Kiev regime’s ability to sustain its resistance. The conflict continues on the same basis as now with Russia making incremental territorial gains while steadily reducing the manpower and weaponry of the Ukrainian forces. Meanwhile the western powers upgrade and escalate their involvement, delivering additional support to Kiev which delivers effects upon Russia that are powerful enough to allow Ukraine to negotiate effectively. At the subsequent negotiations Russia concedes certain territories while Ukraine does the same. For example only, Russia then retains control only of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions plus Crimea while giving up control of the Kherson and Zaporozhia regions.

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Last thoughts...

The above scenarios all depend on several major factors for their potential unfolding. The most major of these are the use of ever more powerful weapons and the extent to which they hit targets not engaged to any degree to date.

If Ukraine receives the F16 fighter jets it has repeatedly asked for and uses them (or other lethal weaponry) to cause havoc within the borders of the Russian Federation and if Russia responds in kind then major shifts in the above scenarios will inevitably take place. Escalation of any kind rather than movements toward negotiations will move the outcome of these scenarios in one direction or another, culminating in the final destructive nature of the conflicts end when some negotiated settlement becomes unavoidable.

UKRAINE: THINKING WITHIN THE WESTERN GEOPOLITICAL BOX

How much sense does it have to ignore objective reality and to instead embrace a subjective wish list of concepts creating boundaries outside of which you cannot think or speak?

This is the self-created miasma of myopia that western political and media elites have created for themselves.

Conceiving Putin as Hitler and the Russian military as the new Nazis is all very well and effectively shores up massive support in the western world among those who retain belief in their elites despite all historical reasons not to. But what happens when objective, on the ground, reality is completely lost sight of and a massive consensus based on the desired reality rather than the actual reality permeates and dominates pervasively?

Waging any kind of war brings with it the obvious and natural use of the information weapon, the creative distortion of reality that serves to bolster support and potentially weaken enemy morale. My contention here however is that this can only be sustained while that enemy shows any sign of being beaten.

There lies the rub.

Russia is winning.

On the economic front Russia has taken each and every blow aimed at it and has survived. More than that and much to the chagrin of western leaders it has adapted its systems to ensure they are further strengthened and made impermeable to future attacks from the West. We can add many features of the new reality which demonstrate beyond any question that Russia will ultimately be greatly strengthened, not weakened by western aggression toward it.

A fundamental miscalculation has been arrived at in the West that failed to acknowledge the reaction of much of the world to its many regime change wars of recent years. Nations attempting to build their economies and the politicians charged with doing this across the global south can surely only be doubtful regarding whether such actions can bring the stability they need. Quite on the contrary such upheavals are much more likely to bring them worse conditions and all, apparently, for the sake of the self-interests of the West.

The western political elites have found much to their dismay that those they relied upon in the global south to support them and condemn Russia are not doing so. Exacerbating this factor is a further economic factor, that Russia has many of the vital resources and products they can hardly do without. This leaves the West increasingly isolated, not Russia. In fact the prestige and respect along with its power of influence is rising, not falling.

Meanwhile a mass propaganda (or if you like an information) campaign has been mounted to promote the western view, its agenda, narratives and talking points. This has sought to create a black and white scenario absent any reference to the past whereby the West and their allies/proxies are wholly right and Russia and its allies are wholly wrong.

This is where subjective wish list fantasy conflicts with objective, on the ground, reality.

Many pejorative things, in fact a plethora of these arrows of propaganda and viewpoint manipulation are created on a daily basis about Russia and its campaign in Ukraine, all attempting to build a certain picture that it is hoped will achieve certain aims. These comprise bolstering Ukrainian morale, shoring up to the max all opinionating that casts Putin as a vengeful, out of control demon facing imminent defeat by the plucky, infinitely brave Ukrainians who are defying all odds as a David defeating an evil Goliath and creating an overall momentum that it is hoped will lead to Russia being weakened, defeated and withdrawing from Ukraine.

The wish list, wishful-thinking fantasy had its merits and achieved an enormous groundswell of support along with an acceptance that almost unlimited funds needed at home should instead be sent to Ukraine. However, with Russia winning on all fronts this consensus is beginning to fall apart and some rowing back on the expenditure via weaponry and financial gifts to Ukraine is now in evidence.

Everyone in the West is used to the endless series of TV and movie creations where the villain always loses in the end after seemingly unstoppable progress doing his or her evil deeds. The hero always prevails against all odds to slay whatever story line “dragon” is involved. Reality is suspended. But life is not like that. However, in certain circumstances and especially when the full might and weight of political and media volume wishes it, a similar suspension of reality can be achieved in real life as opposed to within some Hollywood fiction.

So has it been with Ukraine. And so it was with several regime change wars conducted previously, most infamously against Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. The demon must be depicted as totally black. Now of course virtually no historical leader has been totally white, unimpeded by egotistic vices, moral failings or dubious ethical values in thought or deed. But those who are conceived as vital subjects for elimination by western powers have universally been depicted as being as black as night (or whatever other analogy you prefer).

Putin was not supposed to survive. This was not the movie being envisaged. Russia was meant to descend screaming to a state of abject penury whereupon all those aspects of its governance would be overturned. The western “heroes” were then to march in to save the day and rescue every princess from every dragon’s clutches or fiery jaws.

The movie projector has gone rogue. What is being increasingly seen on the screen of elite western minds is not at all what they wished for and they are having huge problems in negotiating ways to deal with this fat, with the realities they are being exposed to.

What to do?

How can all those PR realities now be negated after their careful creation? How can the expectations that everything will come right at the end of the “movie” be adjusted significantly enough to allow those things which must now be done to be done? How much lying will be exposed destroying reputations across the board with the attendant humiliation this will entail?

Western political elites WILL find ways to fudge reality and avoid the maximum humiliation that should come their way. They showed this in the aftermath of many previous inadvisable adventures they involved themselves in such as that over Iraq and its non-existent WMD. But make no mistake. There WILL be a heavy price to pay over the Ukraine debacle and the reputation of the West, already hugely damaged by the reckless regime change wars of the past will, in my estimation, be dealt a terminal blow in regard to it creating a unipolar world where it is supremely dominant.

That is arguably, ultimately the greatest and most sought for reality that will be exposed as a totally unattainable fantasy and which the global south along with Russia and China will increasingly point to as the last great delusion held by an economically dying western world.