U.S. POLICY ON CHINA REGARDING TAIWAN - THE CRIMEA EFFECT

Could it be that the USA is seeking to goad China into action that would have a severely limiting effect on the headway China is making regarding its trading potential via such innovations as the Belt and Road Initiative but of course not limited to it.

The use made of Russia’s reunion with Crimea gave the USA a potent tool with which to attack Russia and limit its trading potential via the sanctions which are still in existence to this day.

What if the current U.S. actions are designed to push China just far enough to achieve such a Crimea effect over Taiwan? Almost any military action on the part of the PLA would probably do to churn out all the resolutions and demand for sanctions against China required by the USA. In addition and arguably even more importantly it would provide the U.S. with what they would assert was full justification to penalise any nation doing business with China in the same way as it has done previously regarding Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

It may well be that the Taiwanese authorities have been fully briefed on this plan and have full knowledge of the required outcome. That outcome as I see it would be to goad the Chinese to such an extent that some breach of current norms by military means so that the actions above regarding sanctions etc. could be speedily applied to China just as they were regarding Russia and Crimea.

On the face of it this belligerence by the USA looks completely reckless and irresponsible, risking an all-out war. However, if this policy is NOT the result of hot heads but rather of cool, calculating ones we may see a calculated restraint come into being once the required military activity of the PLA has been brought into being quite knowingly by both the USA and Taiwan.

It is more likely that a step by step approach is being taken by the USA in conjunction with Taiwan and allies Australia and the UK. The attempt to weaken China through disrupting its at present rather favourable reputation in most nations it trades with, appears much more likely to me than any kind of suicidal attempt to generate an outright, full-scale war with the nation. I say suicidal as there is no prospect whatsoever that the USA, Australia, UK and Taiwan could win against China in its own backyard. The human casualties in Taiwan and Australia and the devastation to the infrastructure in both nations would be immense. Fomenting a full-scale war with China would also end in ignominious defeat for the U.S. and UK as they would not have the capacity to mount a serious challenge within the South China Sea.

In my view, it is far more likely that the USA and its allies are simply pushing China to do something that would allow it to be attacked financially and economically via sanctions and a full range of American-led prohibitions on countries attempting to do business with a China it has goaded so far into a pariah state by intent.