TAKING ‘X’ OUT OF THE EQUATION IN UKRAINE

I was never very good at mathematics at school, I’d be the first to admit this. But I do know it is an exact discipline and that if you want to get a good answer from an equation you need to work with all elements involved.

I am sure even mathematical geniuses keep to the basic rule that if there is an ‘ingredient’ symbol in an equation it is there because it forms an integral part of the calculation reflecting an aspect of reality that if left out you will provide a wrong answer, at least partly, and most likely VERY wrong indeed.

Why am I bringing this up?

I do so because to listen to western politicians and media commentators on Ukraine or indeed on most geopolitical events where western national interests are involved you get an almost completely one-sided view and a distinctly skewed image of what lies behind such events. Leaving out the other half of any story means obviously provides only a partial picture and this will inevitably lead to mistakes/injustices along with an inability on the part of any observer to factor in all consequences including most vitally when seeking some resolution to any conflict.

Take the example of what happened in south-eastern Ukraine in the Spring of 2014.

To gain a FULL picture, any observer, analyst, planner or negotiator would have to embrace all the possible underlying causes and scrupulously avoid overlaying these with those scenarios which suit only THEIR side best.

If we look at the events which took place in south-eastern Ukraine in the Spring of 2014 there are certain events that must be taken into consideration when trying to grasp the entire picture of what went on and why.

The Maidan protests/riots/coup, however anyone might wish to describe them, had just occurred. A new government had been installed in Kiev replacing the one elected by a majority of Ukrainian voters, most of whom happened to live in the eastern half of Ukraine. The new government put in place with the help of the EU and USA was almost entirely inimical to the interests of those in eastern Ukraine and in fact appeared minded to punish and ostracise them. By denying them the right to speak their native Russian along with sending the clear message that their vital interests would never again be represented in Kiev the response that then takes place becomes understandable.

Were the pro-Russian majority in the east meant to sit on their hands accepting that henceforth they were excluded from any meaningful future democratic process or rights, the right to their own language, culture and loyalties and much else that they had grown up with and held dear?

In this situation as described above, was there any discussion heard from any western politician in power or mainstream news source on these subjects, or on the possibility that they might just have had something to do with the uprising in that region of Ukraine known as the Donbass? I would bet no one reading this heard any such thing from any in-power political source or mass media outlet at that time or since. For the entire course of the last eight long years no such discussion has taken place and only an extremely partial and self-justifying narrative has been heard by western elites on the situation in Ukraine.

In addition to the above, was it explained at any point that the vast majority of the eighteen thousand or so fatalities that took place during those eight years, were civilians killed as a result of mortar and missile attacks on the cities, towns and villages of the Donbass by those besieging them, i.e. the Ukrainian army and the extremist militias? They arrived to take out the ‘Moskals’ they hated as much as they hated all those they considered Russians. No one listening to reports or analyses concerning the murderous events in Ukraine heard anything regarding this from any western mainstream source.

What has been repeated and endlessly heard in the West was that Russia was attacking Ukraine in unprovoked fashion for no reason other than self-interested ambition of some kind, certainly not out of a desire to protect those it considered fellow Russians. Little to nothing was heard concerning the fact that Ukraine is a nation almost perfectly divided down the middle with one side constantly looking west while the other looked east.

These elements of the equation were all omitted to suit the needs of the western powers both within the EU and the USA. Western sources insisted that it was all very simple. Russia had attacked and invaded Ukraine where for unknown and probably extremely wrong, bad, unjust, inexplicable and outrageously illegal reasons a band of ‘separatists’ had taken power.

The equation from western elites was simple. Russia and the separatists were bad, had evil intentions and were acting in vile and cruel fashion against poor Ukraine. The message was clear, Russia was a big bad bully whose behaviour must be severely punished and that the entire western world must now unite against it and drive the Russians out and then all would be well.

In essence, they insisted on promoting a simplistic 1+1=2 calculation when in reality it was reality was reflected in something comparable to <x+y-z/2xN>.

We now have the latest trope on Ukraine concerning the Russian military “massing” on the Ukrainian border and how a Russian invasion is in the offing. The fact of the Ukrainian military had just previously trained alongside NATO troops in war games, had recently received new arms shipments from the USA and Turkey and had moved most of their troops and equipment up to the front line threatening the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass was almost universally omitted in the West. These facts, once again left out of the equation gave an entirely misleading picture. This gave the impression that Russian troops had simply marched up to the Ukrainian border for no good reason except out of an aggressive desire to invade were threatening poor Ukraine.

This works well if all you wish to do is manipulate your home populations and generate a conditioned hatred toward, and fear of, Russians… but the consequences for any hope of resolving the situation when you insist on only half the story being the whole truth are reduced to near zero. Such a purposefully misleading and myopic approach has been in evidence for the entirety of the past eight years while people have continued to die throughout. Refusing to see the whole picture means you make yourself at least half-blind. And, if on top of this you tell yourself tall tales to convince yourself, your colleagues and the general public that you are 100% right, your handle on the truth falls well below even the level of 50%.

Regarding the Donbass, things have come to a head in recent months. Russia has become terminally frustrated with the non-implementation of the autonomy for the Donbass that was agreed in Minsk in 2015 and has become fearful of an imminent attempt by Kiev to mount a military attack on the pro-Russian communities there.

The authorities in Ukraine have uniformly refused to implement the agreement they signed up to in Minsk. To exacerbate the situation none of the political leaders of the West have been willing to insist Kiev make good on its promises. They only demand continually that Russia do something more, a Russia that has no true role in a situation that is in truth an internal matter for the Ukrainians to resolve among themselves. Russia certainly stands guard to make sure no one who is a Russian speaker with a Russian passport is harmed in the Donbass but the Minsk Agreement is essentially between the Kiev authorities and those with leadership in the breakaway Donbass republics. However, Kiev refuses to speak to them, this also being a requirement in the agreement it signed up to.

Russia is always and ever portrayed as the bad guy, along with those other ‘bad guys’ in the Donbass. Just bad guys doing bad things with nothing else to say and nothing more to it than that, with no other possible less despicable motivations to be taken into consideration.

These examples and many more which could be cited in relation to the war western elites are waging against Russia, surely reveal an absence of any willingness to come to terms with any comprehensive reality in a genuine effort to resolve the underlying problems and true causes that are fuelling this ongoing crisis.

Equations with half the symbols taken out are being used. No good result is likely. This is no recipe for any kind of breakthrough. Not at all. The practice strictly adhered to by the western powers is instead a recipe for geopolitical blindness, miscalculation, misunderstanding and ultimately… a blind walking forward to some inevitable further, and greater, disaster.