THE FALL OF EASTERN & SOUTHERN UKRAINE TO RUSSIA & WHAT FOLLOWS

There is a town called Poposnaya in eastern Ukraine. It is in an elevated position where much of the surrounding area for many kilometres out can be surveyed. The Ukrainian army has just lost it to the Russian forces slowly making progress toward the towns where the Ukrainians will make their last stand in the Lugansk province, Severodonetsk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

This breakthrough will lead to sieges of the remaining conurbations listed above. It is not thought that they will pose the same problems or require the same time to liberate them as was found to be the case in Mariupol. In Mariupol the fighters were predominantly irregulars, Azov Battalion ultra-nationalists and of course they are still refusing to emerge from below the Azovstal steel works there.

Severodonetsk, Slavyansk nor Kramatorsk are industrial towns in the same way Mariupol is and neither are there likely to be any ‘fight till they die’ Azov extremists in them, they are almost certainly regular Ukrainian army troops with some national guard among them. For myself I suspect that there is a strong likelihood, though not by any means a certainty, that most will surrender. I can’t imagine they will relish fighting to a needless death.

Russia’s campaign in Ukraine is therefore coming to the end of its second phase. Once the Lugansk region is fully secured all remaining Russian troops will be deployed in dealing with the very last significant Ukrainian positions near Donetsk City. That done, some mopping up around Kharkov will no doubt take place and then essentially Russia’s operation is basically done and dusted.

The question of other regions in southern Ukraine that wish to become affiliated with the Russian Federation as republics such as the Kherson region will either have been resolved or be in the decision-making stage by the end of the main phase of operations outlined above.

How long will it take for the end game scenario as described take? I would imagine three weeks at the outside, potentially as little as two more from the time of writing, May 12th.

It has become clear within the last week or so that the western powers and those who speak for them within western mass media are finding themselves less and less able to put on a brave face talking of endless Ukrainian victories while avoiding all else.

This makes them more grounded in reality than they have been… but it also makes the most powerful of them more dangerous. As the saying goes, all’s fair in love and war’ and as we have seen an already copious amount of false flag operations have already been undertaken by Zelensky and his people. The combination of growing desperation and the reach and scope of western powers along with highly complicit mainstream news platforms almost any atrocity can be arranged in the days ahead and laid at Russia’s door.

However, I suspect there will come a time when the penny finally drops among western elites in general and with a resigned sight they will finally admit defeat. Defeated on the battlefield but defeated also in the financial and economic fields also. They will begin to turn inward and belatedly turn their attention to their increasingly battered, free-falling economies to see what they could possibly do to shore them up.

Russia will get to work also, but more in much more extroverted fashion, with a ruble soaring in value against the dollar and euro, with inflation under control and predicted to fall, with self-sufficiency in energy and food, with a bumper grain harvest forecast, mightily increased profits from its oil and gas and stead, strong and stable links to trading partners China and India among many others… Russia will set to work rebuilding the new republics to the west that were once part of Ukraine.

These are a few of my predictions regarding…

THE FALL OF EASTERN & SOUTHERN UKRAINE TO RUSSIA & WHAT FOLLOWS