RUSSIA WILL NOW DOUBLE DOWN WITH MOBILISATIONS, CRUSHING BOTH UKRAINE & THE WEST

The more territory Russia takes in eastern Ukraine the more industrial capacity local to the battlefield it accrues to itself as well as the railway network to transport it as well as additional troops and heavy weaponry.

An industrial mobilisation will soon be underway within Russia whereby the state demands from its industrial base the clothing and equipment needed for the general mobilisation required to ensure that the new regions Russia has acquired can be fully defended by adequate quantities of troops and materiel.

The taking of every part of the Donbass region will occur within weeks. It will then require to be adequately defended from attack. This is the reason for the requirement for the two staggered mobilisations mentioned above. Naturally the first step is to have the uniforms and equipment including all necessary weaponry and ammunition available, then the recruitment of those Russians who will perform largely guard duty in the Donbass.

While the Donbass becomes fully secured and protected this means that reconstruction efforts can be expanded in safety as well as enabling the freeing up of seasoned fighters to take part in new phases of Russia’s special operation. These new phases will have been planned ad hoc in response to the rejection of the Ukrainian regime to agree consultations leading to a final settlement.

Kiev’s negotiators began to take a realistic approach in the last meetings of the two sides in Istanbul and there was some optimism on the Russian side that things were moving in the right direction, that of a negotiated settlement and an end to conflict. However, this was not to be. Ukraine’s western sponsors, namely Boris Johnson, Joe Biden and other European leaders appear to have given Kiev an ultimatum. Stop the process of negotiations and we will provide you with the finances and weaponry to defeat Russia.

The defeat of Russia of course failed to take place and despite the ‘looking on the bright side’ take of the Ukrainian authorities and western mass media Ukraine has continued to lose both troops and increasingly more ground including major cities such as Izyum, Popasnaya, Severodonetsk and in the last few days Lysychansk. The days ahead appear to promise ever more Russian advances including the taking of the town of Sevirsk and Bakhmut and perhaps only a week or so later the fall of major cities, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Russian attention then will turn to dealing with the Ukrainian forces now making attacks on the civilian population of Donetsk City.

I see no reason why the process described above will be brought to a halt, especially as there are no signs that the weaponry from the USA, UK and EU nations is making any significant effect or impact. It is certainly not halting the Russian advance which is instead increasing in pace. The Ukrainian forces, already greatly weakened having lost the majority of their best, well trained and battle-hardened troops, and increasingly composed of unwilling conscripts, the partially-trained and middle aged and elderly men who are surely aware of their status as cannon fodder, cannot possibly have high morale.

If the scenario broadly painted above is true and if Russia has ever better access to fuel and industrial capacity near the primary battle lines, with reinforcements about to arrive in ever-greater numbers providing guard duty and enabling rest and recreation to Russia’s professional soldiers I think you can see where this is headed.

Russia was always going to bring its special military operation to a successful conclusion. Even with the financial and military backing of the West Ukraine was never going to find any way to resist in the long run. The western powers played a losing game from the start in rejecting the desperate need for a political, not military solution to the Donbass. Ukraine being in effect two nations in one, the Ukrainian-speaking west and the Russian-speaking east, needed a political settlement whereby peace could be assured along with the cultural, historical and social allegiances of each could be respected.

Both Ukrainian regimes since the West-fostered and supported ultra-violent insurrection against the democratically-elected president and government in 2014 set the stage for even more violence toward the Russian-speaking civilian population of the Donbass who sought to preserve their language and allegiances through a demand for autonomy. The West in conjunction with the Ukrainian regimes since 2014 have wrought a devastatingly irresponsible and utterly wrong-headed catastrophe upon the entirety of Ukraine ever since.

Now, still digging themselves ever deeper in the hole they have dug for themselves since 2014 both Ukraine and the entire western world will now be engulfed in a catastrophe where any positive end is increasingly hard to imagine.