WE ARE APPROACHING THE END GAME IN THE DONBASS AND A LIKELY BLOODBATH

The final push by Russian forces to take and then permanently hold all that remains of the entire Donbass region is likely to begin within the next few days. After the taking of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk/Lysychansk there has been something of a lull while the Russian troops rest and prepare. This does not mean that all sectors of the Russian military have been idle, the softening up of the Ukrainian lines has gone on apace through artillery fire and fire from the air. Over the last 24 hours it is reported that there have been heavy losses on the Ukrainian side where entire convoys have been destroyed with much loss of life.

Ukraine in turn has not been idle either and has been performing an enforced mobilisation to build its forces to the maximum extent. I believe the Ukrainian authorities now claim to have a million troops under arms. Many of these will hardly be trained at all, some for a week or two and quite possibly some may have only been handed a gun and told the rudimentary procedure for loading and firing it. During this mass mobilization effort videos have been seen of men running in flight from the recruiting officers and mass demonstrations from families against the recruiters.

The coming battle will without doubt be fierce and the losses on both sides are likely to be considerable. The Ukrainians are currently shelling the areas where Russian troops are located in proximity to what is expected to be the first target of Russian forces in the coming offensive, Siversk/Seversk. As said above, the Russians are in turn shelling all perceived locations of large quantities of Ukrainian troops. This war is about to enter what is likely to be its bloodiest and even perhaps almost face to face stage at times where no quarter is given on either side.

It appears some of the Ukrainians forcibly mobilised and sent to the front, no doubt those who are among the less well trained and less committed have begun to surrender themselves to the Russian forces, handing over their guns and equipment as they do so. Videos are surfacing showing the process of these troops being processed, adding their weapons to an ever growing pile.

Without doubt the Ukraine authorities will have transferred as many heavy weapons including their new HIMAR rocket launchers into position along the front line where Russia is expected within days to launch its attack. The number of troops will certainly number many tens of thousands.

This will be the final battle for the Donbass. It is inconceivable that the remaining cities of Slovyansk/Slavjansk and Kramatorsk will stand for long if the coming assault claims the remaining major conurbations in northern Donbass. On the other hand, if the Ukrainians somehow manage to withstand the assault by some manner of means, either by sheer force of numbers, local knowledge or through the weaponry supplied by the West Russia will have been delivered a major setback.

If scenario one occurs then the rest of the Donetsk Oblast must surely fall to Russia within a week or two after taking Siversk/Seversk, Bakhmut and just possibly Kharkiv/Kharkov, plus all the surrounding area. A pause is more than likely immediately thereafter however while mopping up operations are conducted and, as before the troops involved are rested to prepare for the final push to take Slovyansk/Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

If scenario two transpires and Ukrainian forces beat back the Russian offensive I imagine some tough decisions will then be made concerning Russia finally deciding on at least a partial mobilisation. In addition the possibility of targeting Ukraine’s electricity (and possible gas) supply networks will be considered/brought forward. The word is that this was not to be considered until it became clear by August or September that the Ukrainian authorities were not going to come to terms and negotiate a peace settlement.

The following phase of conflict in Ukraine appears certain to be extremely bloody. Only one side appears sanguine concerning this prospect and that is the Ukrainian side. The authorities there and those standing behind them in the West appear dead set on continuing to fight on no matter how many casualties occur. The Russians who have a military history where negotiations take place while conflict rages have expressed an interest in resolving the issues involved since 2014 and continue to seek conflict resolution to this day. However, there is no reciprocal response from the other side even though such an arrangement did exist in the early days of the conflict.

Neither side can afford to lose. And of course these sides are not simply one on one. Alongside the Ukrainians you have the entire collective west. The leaders of the West cannot afford to lose out to Russia. But equally the Russians cannot afford to lose out either, driving NATO from its doorstep and ending the ultra-nationalist Nazi-mentality so affecting a very sizeable minority in western Ukraine and leaving the citizens of the Donbass to their collective mercy is absolutely not an option. This is a fight to the death therefore, to the absolute defeat of one side or the other with (unless attendance at negotiations are agreed to by the Ukrainians) no way out but an orgy of death and destruction right to the bitter end.