Sooner or later Ukraine will move to a state hovering between occasional flare ups and relative stability. It will leave the headlines in much the same way Syria, Libya and other areas of upheaval and chaos have left them.
Russia will be hard at work rebuilding the territories under its control, the rouble will long have been introduced, the referendums will be under way or ending their planning processes while mopping up operations of lingering Ukrainian subversive forces are dealt with. In what is left of Ukraine there will be much licking of wounds and a great deal of recriminations and internecine struggles for remaining nodes of power.
Further distant the erstwhile allies of Ukraine will do their utmost to wind down emphasis on that relationship while making public shows of meaningless rhetoric. Behind closed doors the political elites there and across the Atlantic will be doing all possible to close the books on Ukraine as they have in Afghanistan. Attempts will soon be underway to move on with a “Nothing to see here” attitude. To mention the defeat suffered and the excruciating humiliation that attended it will be seen as very bad taste across all elite superstructures within both political and media orbits.
Russia will not rub western noses in the mess they created, not at least with any particular degree of drama or heightened rhetoric, as usual the words used and tenor expressed will reflect the character of Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov, statements that describe the facts as they see them and little more. The Russians will need to roll up their sleeves and get to work across the Donbass region and beyond which is soon to be an integral part of the Russian Federation. This work has already started of course with building projects having been begun to house all those who have lost their homes to the conflict. This is particularly seen in Mariupol at the moment.
In western Ukraine much depends on what shakes out from the final days of Russia’s campaign. Will there be a capitulation by the Ukrainian authorities, their collapse and a total surrender which requires the urgent requirement that new elections are held as soon as possible? I suspect this is very likely to be the case. It is hard for me to imagine that Zelensky and co. can continue once all is lost… and all IS going to be lost. Russia cannot afford to lose this and Russia will not.
All parties involved will, in one manner or another, move on… they will have to.
Not that the international conflict between Russia and the collective west will resolve itself, it will not. Already, with Biden’s upcoming trip to Africa the next stage of the geopolitical tussle between the West and Eurasia is continuing with new political objectives being set. This follows on from Sergey Lavrov’s very successful visit to Africa and we will without doubt see many more such trips on either side, mirroring similar scenarios that characterised the Cold War. These maneuvers will become the new norm. The nations of the global south will have much to profit from playing one side against the other to achieve the maximum benefit.
China has made most inroads into Africa until now. Her Belt and Road Initiative will continue to bring massive investment to every nation it passes through. The USA and UK have plans to create something similar though where they will find the money for it is a moot question at this point with all western economies headed for steep decline, semi-permanent inflation and breathtaking rises in prices of even the most basic of products. Spending across the West cannot help but diminish as belts are endlessly tightened. And can the already huge national debts of the USA, UK and others in their orbit stand even more massive tranches of debt on top?
All this while Russia’s allies and trading partners, those on its ‘friendly nations’ list enjoy the benefits of cheap oil and gas prices with new pipelines to deliver them to reduce the base price on a wide array of products that Eurasia finds so much more attractive than those from the West. China and Russia together are a powerhouse duo that to all intents and purposes have become near immune to the West, Russia has travelled furthest down this road and China, now realising the full extent of the threat from the West is now beginning to follow. For these two the sky is the limit (in fact with them both intent on space exploration even the sky is no limit).
There is a future beyond Ukraine and Eurasia, Russia, China and the global south are ready and anxious to leave the starting line, raring to go in fact… just as the West collapses from the heat.
MOVING BEYOND UKRAINE... WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?
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