SHOULD RUSSIA BE PRESSURED INTO NUCLEAR WAR, OR GIVEN SECURITY GUARANTEES?

People may say that Russia is a danger to the entire world and that therefore it must be crushed to make it safe, that every avenue to its destruction must be left open to make it vulnerable to attack. These attacks can have many forms, not only full frontal military attack but more like death from a thousand cuts, maximised pressure, full-blown propaganda dirty tricks and every possible means used to trip it up, destabilise it and foment a regime-change insurrection within it.

However, there is a basic flaw to the idea often floated or implied that Russia is some kind of massive danger to the world. That flaw centres around the difference between the soviet Union and the Russian federation of today. The former was massive in the power and reach of its influence. The latter has only a mere shadow of such power and influence.

Russia is struggling to take the Russian-speaking Donbass region of Ukraine. It can be easily guessed how Russia would fare regarding any other such expeditions. The fact of the matter is that Russia was pushed into the corner from which it has now reluctantly and violently escaped. Russia refused the request of those in south-eastern Ukraine that they be allowed to join the Russian Federation. What is more Russia worked with France, Germany and successive Ukrainian regimes to find a peaceful route to some form of peaceful resolution to the desire for the Russian-speaking majority in the Donbass to retain their allegiances (including myriad mixed marriages with Russians over centuries included), their language, and culture by way of a high degree of autonomy from those in western Ukraine who regularly called them names (Moskals) and generally looked upon them as inferiors and possibly traitors.

The Ukrainian nationalists made no secret of their hatred of the Russian-speaking population there for near a century and the diverse views of the Nazi occupation during WWII brought everything to a head. That Russia was given no path out from the situation post 2014 when the democratically elected, Russian-leaning government and president were overthrown by a violent insurrection brought us to where we are now. Russia asked for security guarantees and the removal of NATO from its borders in late 2021. When this was refused, when Zelensky talked of regaining nuclear status, when the Ukrainian army had become a de facto NATO force and shelling of the civilian population by the Ukrainian army spiked in the early months of 2022 Putin knew that all efforts to find a peaceful solution were in vain. Thus the operation to remedy all that had gone before began. There is no way that Russia will cease its operation in Ukraine unless its goals are met, and this very much includes ensuring Russia has security in perpetuity.

In the view of a growing number, especially those in the academic and expert fields where Russia is known best, Russia absolutely should be given the security guarantees she requires.

However, this would not play well for the collective West as its communal goal is to maintain its long-held global dominance and attendant ability to arrange things in its own interests. The primary goal of the western powers is to ensure that they stay top dogs. This requires that the uppity rising powers MUST be kept down by weakening them by whatever means they have at their disposal. One of these means is the demonization card. Playing this creates a propaganda meme whereby their rivals are seen to be some kind of not-quite delineated but only implied danger. They are a danger right... whereas the western powers are in fact those which have been causing all the death and destruction for decades now.

So, give Russia guarantees that it won't be threatened? No way. The western powers wish to maximise the fear Russia and Russians fear in the hope that they will be weakened internally and be easily subject to further weakening. All in the aid of maintaining and increasing western power to the end of creating a virtual prison planet with them as perpetual wardens. Since 9/11 this has been the overwhelming goal of every world power linked to the USA. It is seen as imperative and is perpetually justified by narratives that tell of the need for the West to monitor and control for the benefit of all. However, the primary beneficiaries would be those western powers themselves and, rather than creating a world of freedom it would instead by a world under perpetual surveillance.

In an address he gave in 2007 Putin told the assembled dignitaries of the western world that though Russia would work in close cooperation with all other nations in the fight against international terrorism, nuclear proliferation and all other projects of mutual self-interest, Russia would not sign on to the dictatorship of any nation or group of nations and especially not nations with a record of using war as a near-first solution to all perceived "problems". Russia would follow her own course, sovereign and independent but happy to cooperate and of course to trade with mutual respect being keynote.

Putin's words about cooperation were ignored and immediately forgotten. Only his words denoting that Russia would not submit to the absolute requirement of the western powers post 9/11 that they be the unrivalled dominant power, one that would control all other nations and not necessarily hold their sovereignty, rights or independence to be of higher value than their need for security. Thus Putin became public enemy number one and has remained so from those cold February days in Munich when he made his speech, till now. Every scary story about Putin began after that date, every rabid statement, every demonizing magazine cover and article, every accusation of almost every crime in the book... all occurred after this time, none before. Before he was seen as eminently acceptable, never thereafter.

The reversal of perception of Putin has led us directly here and to the present scenario where a nuclear war on our planet is a potential outcome. The absolute need to do what was regarded as necessary post 9/11 has led us here and the goals set at that time and inviolable and require ALL opposing entities to be removed, destroyed or otherwise rendered weak and unable to present any threat to the supremacy of western power.

So, should Russia be given her security guarantees. Absolutely she should. But will she be given them? Absolutely not.

Unless she fights for them. And she is fighting for them right now in Ukraine as you read this.