This breakthrough will lead to sieges of the remaining conurbations that lie ahead and which will bring about the Russian campaign’s success in liberating the entire Donbass region. It is not thought that Kramatorsk and Slavyansk will pose the same problems or require the same time to liberate as was with Bakhmut. The fall of these cities are some 3 to 6 months away yet unless there is a complete collapse in the morale of the Ukrainian army which is quite possible.
It must be suspected that sooner or later the Ukrainian army will buckle under the continual loss of manpower being suffered. There is a strong likelihood, though not by any means a certainty, that a very large number will surrender over the next few months. They will increasingly see that fighting in a hopeless cause to a needless death is being constantly forced on them by Zelensky who in turn is pushed into this murderous policy by the western powers.
Russia’s campaign in Ukraine is therefore coming to the end of its current phase. From the beginning Russia has fought a limited campaign, only upping its firepower incrementally in the hope of persuading the Ukrainian regime to come to the negotiating table. It should be understood that Russia did everything possible to avoid the present situation. For seven long years Russia attempted to find a peaceful way through via Minsk. Ultimately it became clear that Ukraine and the West had no intention of doing likewise and Russia was left with no good choices but this one.
Russia, due to this being an existential question of securing Russia’s borders and the Russian people in safety and in perpetuity means that Russia was always going to take this campaign through to a successful conclusion no matter what. The determination to do that is total. Still the minimum of force was used at every stage. However, with the West increasingly sending ever more lethal weaponry to Ukraine patience in Moscow is wearing extremely thin.
Russia will end this conflict holding the entirety of the Donbass region as as an integral part of the Russian Federation. The question of other regions in middle and southern Ukraine that wish to become part of the Russian Federation as republics will be most likely be resolved through referendum some time after the Ukrainian regime capitulates and comes to terms.
How long will it take for the end game scenario as described take? I would imagine six months at the outside. It is difficult to imagine it taking much longer as the long-awaited Ukrainian offensive appears to be less and less likely to achieve anything at all and more likely than not will be defeated with immense losses.
It has become clear within the last month or so that the western powers and those who speak for them within western mass media are finding themselves less and less able to put on a brave face, talking of endless Ukrainian victories while avoiding all else. The reality of the Ukrainian regime’s imminent defeat is slowly beginning to be acknowledged, something that ought to have been recognised and acknowledged as soon as it was seen that Russia had survived the onslaught of western sanctions against it.
This recognition will make the western powers more grounded in reality than they have been to date, which was not at all… but it also makes the most powerful of them more dangerous. As the saying goes, all’s fair in love and war’ and as we have seen an already copious amount of false flag operations have already been undertaken by Zelensky and his people. The combination of growing desperation and the reach and scope of western powers along with highly complicit mainstream news platforms almost any atrocity can be arranged in the days ahead and laid at Russia’s door.
However, it must be suspected that there will come a time when the penny finally drops among all western political and media elites and with a resigned air they will finally begin to admit defeat. Defeated on the battlefield and also defeated in financial and economic fields also. They will then begin to turn inward and belatedly their attention will move toward their increasingly battered, free-falling economies to see what they could possibly do to belatedly put them on life support.
Russia will get to work also, though in much more extroverted fashion, with the rouble stable in value against the dollar and euro, with inflation under control and falling, GDP rising, self-sufficiency in energy and food, increased profits from its oil and gas and steady, with increasing links across an expanding BRICS Russia will set to work rebuilding the new republics that were formerly part of Ukraine. These will steadily be brought up to the standards found in the most modern parts of Russia with all the populations of the Donbass enjoying the same benefits in education, healthcare and pensions as the rest of Russia.
Investment in the new regions of Russia will be immense and many Russian-speakers will wish to assist in the development of these new republics and many will settle there. An influx from the increasingly financially devastated western Ukraine can be expected also. Over time shining new airports will rise, brand new hospitals, polyclinics, schools, colleges and universities can be expected along with myriad other forms of infrastructure including new roads, motorways and high speed train lines.
The future is incredibly bright for the Donbass while what is left of the former Ukraine is likely to become parcelled up as protectorates governed by Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia with the EU footing the bill for everything. Russia will ensure that a 100 kilometre buffer zone exists between it and what will become a de facto part of the EU (though never NATO).
These are the most likely changes we will see over the next six months and going forward from there toward a renewed and once more stable region where Russia succeeds in its mission to create a new security architecture that guarantees the security of all and crucially for the Russian Federation itself.
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