WE ARE APPROACHING THE END GAME IN THE DONBASS AND A LIKELY BLOODBATH

The final push by Russian forces to take and then permanently hold all that remains of the entire Donbass region is likely to begin within the next few months. After the taking of Bakhmut there has been something of a lull while the Russian troops rest and prepare. This does not mean that all sectors of the Russian military have been idle, the softening up of the Ukrainian lines has gone on apace through artillery fire and fire from the air. 

Ukraine in turn has not been idle either and has been performing an enforced mobilisation to build its forces to the maximum extent while seeking additional weaponry and ammunition. Many of the Ukrainian army is now only partially trained, some for only a week or two and quite possibly some may have only been handed a gun and told the rudimentary procedures for loading and firing it. It is inevitable that these, if caught in positions where they cannot be rotated out they are likely to drop their weapons and either surrender or flee.

The coming battle will without doubt be fierce and the losses on both sides are likely to be considerable. The long-promised offensive by Ukraine which was supposed to take place in Spring looks likely in the next few weeks. Russia is currently moving forward more aggressively on the ground and attempting through an air campaign to eliminate Ukraine’s fuel dumps and arms depots. This war is about to enter what is likely to be its bloodiest and even perhaps almost face to face stage where no quarter will be given on either side.

Without doubt the Ukraine authorities will have transferred as many heavy weapons including their HIMAR rocket launchers and Leopard tanks into position somewhere close to the front line where Russia is launching sporadic attacks. The number of troops will certainly number many tens of thousands.

This may well be the final large scale battle for the Donbass. It is inconceivable that the remaining cities of Slavjansk and Kramatorsk will stand for long if the coming Ukrainian offensive fails. On the other hand, if the Ukrainians somehow manage to withstand the assault by some manner of means, either by sheer force of numbers, local knowledge or through the weaponry supplied by the West then Russia will have been delivered a major setback.

If the first scenario above occurs then the rest of the Donbass must surely be in danger of falling to Russia within a period of a few months thereafter. A pause is more than likely immediately after the defeat of the Ukrainian offensive however while mopping up operations are conducted and the troops involved will be rested after this undoubtedly gruelling fight to prepare for the final push to take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

If scenario two transpires and Ukrainian forces beat back the Russian offensive and their own offensive succeeds then some tough decisions will then have to be made concerning Russia perhaps finally deciding on another mobilisation from its reserve forces. In addition, the possibility of targeting Ukraine’s transport system, electricity (and possible gas) supply networks along with the perhaps more crucial targets of Ukraine/NATO command and control centres.

The following phase of conflict in Ukraine appears certain to be extremely bloody. The Ukrainian regime and those standing behind them in the West appear dead set on continuing to fight on no matter how many casualties occur. The Russians, who have a military history where negotiations take place while conflict rages, have expressed an interest in resolving the issues involved since 2014 that way and continue to seek conflict resolution to this day. However, there is no reciprocal response from the other side even though such an arrangement did exist in the early days of the conflict.

Neither side can afford to lose. And of course these sides are not simply one on one. Alongside the Ukrainians you have the entire collective west. The leaders of the West cannot afford to lose out to Russia. But equally the Russians cannot afford to lose out either, driving NATO from its doorstep and ending the ultra-nationalist Nazi-mentality so affecting a very sizeable minority in western Ukraine and leaving the citizens of the Donbass to their collective mercy is absolutely not an option. This is a fight to the death therefore, to the absolute defeat of one side or the other with (unless attendance at negotiations are agreed to by the Ukrainians) no way out but an orgy of death and destruction right to the bitter end.