Currently the Russian military is moving forward at a greater pace than it has since the early days of its special military operation in eastern Ukraine. Towns such as Bakhmut and Avdeevka have fallen, now the army is taking village after village all up and down the line of contact with Ukrainian forces. In addition the Russia military has been hitting targets well to the rear, causing massive disruption to the flow of electricity to important locations, diminishing the effectiveness of Ukraine’s military campaign. Already suffering from diminishing weapon and ammunition supplies and with troop numbers falling in ever greater numbers without an adequate system of replacement the Ukrainian military is becoming weaker and weaker.
The Russian military is pushing harder and harder seeking to weaken then break through enemy lines through the increasing use of glide bombs, guided missiles, Grad munitions and drones. Unless the Ukrainian military has obtained increased supplies via the ongoing NATO war games on its border it appears very likely to crack before very long. Until now Ukrainian death squads composed of the most extreme elements of the neo-Nazi cadre in Ukraine have forced Ukrainian troops to remain in position at the point of a gun. When morale finally drops to critical levels, and Russian targeting of Ukrainian positions reaches even greater levels of pinpoint accuracy, will these Nazis manage to hold the line?
Within Russia the military industrial complex left over from the Soviet era has been expanded many times over since 2022. Shell production, tank, drone and the manufacture of guided bombs along with the creation of new innovations in the field of warfare is going on apace. Alongside this the Russian military is said to be gaining an influx of some 1,400 volunteers per day. The size of the Russian army is said to be around one million three hundred thousand and due to be expanded to some one million six hundred thousand. Training of new recruits is delivered over many months and with due care to create a professional army that can match any other worldwide.
The Russians have learnt invaluable lessons on the battlefield since February of 2022 and are now in a position to use all experience gained and lessons learned to deal a crushing blow to the Ukrainian military when the time is right. On the Ukrainian side the likelihood is that almost every professional soldier, most of them having been trained in NATO nations are either dead or injured so severely that they will not again be seen on the battlefield. Recruiters attempting to fill the gaps left by them are snatching men off the streets and attempting to reprehend them as they try to sneak across the border into Romania. Those who have been sent to the line of contact now have an average age of 43 and in a great many cases are mere cannon fodder, their military training rudimentary.
What does all this bode for the future? Having a brain akin to that of Einstein is hardly required to prophesy on this question. The facts speak for themselves.
Unless the Ukrainian regime has been stockpiling a massive horde of military equipment, missiles, ammunition and has seen a huge influx of sheep dipped NATO officers and men in recent months the answer is clear. Russia will continue to pummel Ukrainian arms dumps and energy production centres while taking village after village across the battle lines. A breakthrough around the central Bakhmut/Avdeevka region appears very likely. With the Ukrainian forces having little recourse to air power, having a massively weakened military force and with Russia having taken out the majority of Ukraine’s air defence there is little stop this eventuality. Only some well-hidden supplies of all three can present a problem to the Russians.
When is a major Russian offensive likely to start?
Currently the ground in eastern Ukraine is extremely muddy after the thawing process that has been taking place over the last month or so. The drying out process will be well under way by mid-May. By July the ground ought to be sufficiently hard to take the kind of massive tank assault that would be expected during the expected offensive. Therefore, either in mid-May or early June we might see Russia begin its great push forward to break through Ukrainian lines, seeking in due course to take the cities of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Kharkov. Whether Kiev and Odessa are intended to be liberated from Ukrainian regime control in this first wave of the offensive is less certain however, if the first three are taken the fall of Odessa and Kiev can surely not be far behind.
In the event of the three cities above being taken if not all five it would surely bring about a huge increase in pressure upon Zelensky’s presidency (due to run its course on May 20th) if not the entire regime. If he and they survive the massive pressure that will undoubtedly stem from these defeats it is almost inevitable that Lvov will become the new seat of power within the rump state of Ukraine that will remain. Those in the USA, if they have not at that time delivered the 61 billion dollars of aid, will surely wash their hands of Zelensky and his people once and for all. The idea that he has the ability to push the Russian military back in even the slightest degree will be seen quite clearly as a pipe dream, which it always was in fact.
If the Zelensky regime falls as a result of Russia’s ‘greatest summer offensive’ all bets will then be off regarding future eventualities. The most likely consequence of all is that a) Protectorates are set up to manage various sectors of rump Ukraine until b) elections are held for president and government. It is certain that Russia-neutral, if not wholly Russia-positive candidates would win so thoroughly sick of being at war would the remaining Ukrainian population be. In the east Russia would set to work in the eight regions that would then be part of the Russian Federation. All manner of infrastructure would be as speedily as possible set in place with labour arriving every day from the Ukrainian protectorates seeking gainful employment.
The European Union would be left with the sole responsibility for putting some semblance of stability into the protectorate areas causing even greater outflows of European taxpayer funds into building a liveable, economically viable space in western (rump) Ukraine. The USA, freed of all ownership of the ‘Ukraine Problem’, will concentrate its attentions once again on undermining China, quite possibly courting Russia in an effort to split the two apart. Putin is extremely unlikely to be seduced by this obvious tactic and will continue to grow the Russian economy, bolstered by its hugely increased reputation in winning out against the entire West in Ukraine.
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