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The fear of Russia invading Europe & the Baltic States is being spread far & wide by western political and media elites. Are we hearing a true account of elite anxieties, or do they hide some deeper fear?
These days you hear a lot of chatter across various media sources and amongst western politicians regarding the danger to the West of Russia. Lurid stories regarding Russia finishing with Ukraine and then invading and occupying the nations of Europe and the Baltic States are rife. How realistic are these warnings?
If you listen to Professor John J. Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago on this subject you will hear him say there is no basis for the assertions above. Professor Mearsheimer studies great power politics and has been an active commentator on the war in Ukraine since as early as 2015. His branch of study falls within what is called the ‘Realist School’. From Wikipedia, he is an American political scientist and international relations scholar who belongs to the realist school of thought.
Professor Mearsheimer points to all the indications that Russia is solely focused on Ukraine and indeed on only a particular region of Ukraine known as the Donbass. This is a primarily Russian-speaking region that shares a long border with the Russian Federation. Mearsheimer points to the relatively low number of Russian troops that have been assigned to the present campaign and to the fact that Russia has not mounted the kind of campaign in Ukraine that the Americans mounted in Iraq for instance. The troop numbers are too low to take, hold and occupy the entirety of Ukraine, therefore how could Russia possibly take the whole of Europe and the Baltic States with such low troop numbers? In addition Mearsheimer states that there is not a single indication that Russia has this intention.
Why then do we hear this scare story being spread far and wide in the West? What might be behind it, the true reason for the West’s fear of Russia?
Factors to keep in mind:
1. The economic rise, and potential for economic rise, of nations who have remained outside the orbit of western influence, such nations include Russia and China, band also Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and, until recently (and remaining broadly unaligned) Libya. Others such as Saudi Arabia have recently moved away from alignment with the West along with a growing number of African nations. This is threat number one.
2. The events of 9/11 made it imperative for the United States to reassert its domination across the world, strengthening its ability to control potential dangers to itself through close surveillance and an increase in levers of economic manipulation. A redoubled effort to insert itself within nations through to have influence within them by all means possible was imperative. Besides these soft power activities the willingness to use hard power has also been clearly seen in the many regime change operations that have been conducted since 9/11. With the failure of many of the regime change operations (such as that in Afghanistan) U.S. influence can be seen slipping rather than increasing. This is threat number two.
3. Related to 1. and 2. above is the shaping up of a multipolar world scenario with multiple nations now gravitating around both China and Russia. This trend runs contrary to U.S. goals regarding having greater influence with which to spot and eliminate potential 9/11-type threats to it emerging. How can you impose effective surveillance on nations where you are not embedded as the elite or within that nation’s elites? You cannot. And the ultimate goal post-9/11 was to have worldwide surveillance right down to the most intimate details regarding telecommunications, internet, email and interpersonal relationships. To be able to spy to a near universal degree was the goal sought to keep the USA safe in perpetuity. With nations where it sought elimination and replacement of political elites growing stronger economically and in terms of their influence we see this goal becoming harder, not easier to attain. This is threat number three.
The USA and its allies such as the UK and most of the EU states cannot wage regime change wars against the primary states mentioned above in any direct way. China and Russia are both states with sophisticated nuclear weapons at their disposal. To use tactics similar to those employed against Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya is unthinkable. Another way to achieve U.S. goals and eliminate fears 1. 2. and 3. Had to be devised. And of course it was perceived that though the post-9/11 goals had to be achieved as soon as possible a head on charge against both Russia and China would be folly. Therefore a strategy was devised whereby one would be taken on semi-directly while the other would be tackled by a more nuanced means of weakening pressure.
The plan for Russia
Russia was to be brought to a state of economic calamity by a two-pronged approach. It was to be enticed by unrelenting pressure to do what we saw on February 24th 2022, namely cross the Russo-Ukrainian border and invade Ukraine. No way out was to be left for Russia but this outcome, no Minsk Accords where a peaceful means of resolution to the Donbass problem would be allowed to succeed, no appeals for a new European security architecture for all by Russia would be given the time of day, instead all would ultimately be rejected to initiate the planned for conflict. This was to massively drain Russia of financial resources and weaken it substantially. Concurrently a massive array of financial and economic sanctions would deliver the crucial body blow to collapse Russia’s ability to serve its people who would then rise up and achieve the regime change the USA and its allies sought.
The plan for China
Just as Russia was being ‘dealt with’ China would be submitted to unrelenting pressure regarding Taiwan. The strategy regarding Russia being successful the nations gravitating toward it within the BRICS group would think again and revert back to being under U.S. influence. China, goaded into a siege or invasion of Taiwan would find itself abandoned by former BRICS members and therefore weakened to that degree. Clearly the U.S. planners will have an entire flowchart of tactics to further destabilise China during this time, without doubt including actions initiated in Hong Kong, Xinjiang and elsewhere within mainland China. The goal, regime change with the elimination and replacement of the ruling elite in China would certainly be a greater challenge than in Russia, however there appears no doubt that this IS the goal.
You will no doubt have already ascertained the reason, or rather the reasons why the USA and its allies fear Russia and also why they fear China from all of the above and this due to a massive miscalculation by the collective west.
The plan for Russia failed.
Instead of growing weaker Russia has grown stronger through the actions of the collective west.
Vladimir Putin has just won reelection as president with an even stronger mandate from the Russian people. None of this is according to plan. The Russia previously thought to be weak by the leaders of the collective west and said to be weak and failing in initial pronouncements must now be said to be so strong that it could take all of Europe and the Baltic States. This is false as stated initially. But the true fear cannot be spoken, that the USA and all its proxies are being defeated, humiliated, sidelined and left ever weaker with every passing day. This is the real fear behind all that we see and hear from the western powers now. Their own malign activities are boomeranging back on them and destroying any hope that their 9/11 goals will ever be realised. Those goals were never to be questioned. World domination by the USA and those within its orbit of control, HAD to be. These are the reasons for the fear, and that fear is growing by the day, initiating ever more desperate actions, statements and policies even as Russia approaches the ultimate moment of triumph in Ukraine.
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