Why has the situation in Ukraine become the overwhelming, almost single focus, of western foreign policy with apparently no plan B but only a steady march toward ever more escalation?
SCENARIO 1: Russia Wants To Rule The World (Or At Least Europe)
In this scenario providing a reason for the ‘all or nothing’ western plan now in progress is that the western powers have data, covertly retrieved from Russia, that the Russians plan to take over the world, or at least invade and take over Europe. If this is the case, barring the risk of revealing sources and methods, wouldn’t you think they would tell western audiences what they have gleaned, at least in outline? Instead we have received only speculation from both western officials and commentators alike on this point.
If Russia was poised to invade and occupy Europe why, by common perception, is Russia taking such a long time on its takeover in Ukraine? Besides the fact that no Russian official has stated Russia wants to occupy Europe where would the Russians come from to not only accomplish the task but presumably to run and control everything afterwards? The days when armies of tens of millions could be put together, trained and paid for are over, especially for Russia with an economy that has been compared with that of South Korea.
Something else is clearly at stake regarding the West’s overwhelming desire to throw money at Ukraine with a view to defeating Russia there?
SCENARIO 2: The Good Guys Of The West Want Freedom & Democracy For All
You know this meme well from all the regime change wars of the recent past that the USA and its allies have engaged in, in the recent past. It is portrayed in similar terms as the Crusades mounted by Richard the lionheart and others against the Arabs of Jerusalem. The good guys have decided to engage the tyrants and slay all those metaphorical dragons rescuing the equally metaphorical princesses. It has nothing to do with maintaining influence, power and lucrative sources of energy or income.
I suspect most of those reading this will have long discounted these saintly reasons for the expenditure of vast amounts of blood and treasure involved in these regime change wars of choice. Power, influence, resources and hard cash are much more persuasive elements when it comes to political and geopolitical decision making. Besides, all done at the cost of half a million Ukrainian lives? What kind of gift to Ukraine is that?
So what does this leave? Why must we all be taken to the brink of Armageddon due to a dispute between two Slavic nations that despite eight long years of trying (by one side at least) could not be resolved?
SCENARIO 3: The West Is Losing Its Long-Held Global Dominance & Can’t Have That
The last few decades, other than see western regime change wars fail, has seen nations such as China and Russia rise to become a combined peer competitor of the West. No one should underestimate the positive features that come with global dominance. The ability to manipulate nations far from your shores, persuade them to listen to you and be swayed by you due to your power, and to therefore set the stage for wealth accumulation, guaranteed energy flows for you and your endless power accumulation, is quite an asset to lose.
These new kids on the block, Russia and China, are obstinately resistant to doing your bidding as you are used to. They want to go their own way rather than do things your way. What does this signify to the political elites of the West whose institutions are universally set up to take advantage of a situation where the West is in power… always? All the perks of power that have been accepted as guaranteed are now at risk. And, if the situation is not dealt with urgently, every last perk could disappear one after another till at last they are all gone? How would THAT feel?
This last scenario, in my view, is the one that most likely lies behind the seemingly endless risks the western powers are willing to take in Ukraine, risks that could put the rest of us, kept well outside the corridors of power, directly on the road to Armageddon.
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