We hear a lot of talk about eventual peace negotiations ending the conflict in Ukraine. Yet, in one form or another both the Ukrainian regime and the spokespersons for the collective West set either impossible conditions for the Russians (in Kiev’s case) or set conditions that delay such negotiations indefinitely.
In the case of Kiev, Zelensky says that before any negotiations can take place Russia must remove all its troops from every inch of what he considers to be Ukrainian territory. Only once this is done can negotiations start? In other words Russia must capitulate, something Russia will never do.
The U.S. states that the conflict must be continued until the Kiev regime makes enough gains to give it adequate leverage at the negotiating table. With Russia taking ever more territory this only leaves certain theatrical attacks and the potentiality of the Ukrainian Kursk offensive to provide this. If Russia pushes all surviving Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region this only leaves pinprick strikes using F16s and/or ATACMS/Storm Shadow missile strikes fired at Russian targets. It is extremely unlikely that Russia will put up with Ukrainian troops within the Kursk region for long, no matter what it takes to eject them and no matter how long that process may take and pinprick strikes are not going to bring Russia to the negotiating table, especially when the Russian military is moving quickly forward in the Donbass.
This leaves the question open as to whether the western powers really want peace negotiations to start… ever. Just as the Israelis appear to not really wish for any kind of ceasefire to take place in its war against Hamas. For the military analysts in Washington and their political equivalents it may be making sense to them to keep the conflict going on the basis that Russia will be weakened across several fronts if not the battlefront itself. It may well be that Russia taking ever more territory is not a problem for these individuals whose main concern is to undermine Russia any way they can. The Ukrainians in this scenario would be completely expendable. However, herein lies the rub.
For the planners in the Pentagon moving pieces on a chessboard where the USA wins whichever pieces are destroyed in the process may look very good. All the death and devastation is happening ‘over there’, not here. So what if Europe is going down the plughole economically, that just means more profit for us over here. We’ll help out… at a price. Ukrainians are dying? Okya, well it’s not really about them anyway, is it. They are the means to an end, and that end is the weakening of one of the two powers that are threatening U.S. global domination.
Keeping the pot boiling may well appear an excellent idea to those whose blood flows ice cold in their veins. It’s their job to make sure the USA and its allies stay on top and that those rising powers that are threatening to reduce the power of the USA and its allies are hit hard and weakened… no matter what it takes. You can’t make an omelet without breaking a few eggs, right? But there is a snag.
So far the estimated number of Ukrainian casualties is around 600,000 dead and wounded. Recent estimates put the rate of attrition of Ukrainian manpower at something over 1,000 per day. With the Ukrainian authorities hard pushed to get men to the front line to fight they are resorting to physically kidnapping off the street by force. Thousands have tried to flee with others almost never leaving their homes or doing so disguised as women. The recruiters are subject to attack and hundreds of their vehicles have been torched in recent weeks. In short Ukraine is going to run short of troops and especially so when it comes to highly trained troops.
How long can Ukraine continue to fight a Russian military that has been estimated to grow to 800,000 highly trained troops by the end of the year (this is the estimate recently provided by the Ukrainians). Russians are volunteering in droves and are receiving at least six months training. Those who have been fighting are by now thoroughly battle-hardened (but are kept refreshed by regular rotation). Ukrainian troops are barely trained at all in regard to the latest flow of cannon-fodder to the front. Those who are there are rotated only on an irregular basis and often must spend long periods at the front before being relieved.
Russia’s campaign to stop the Kiev regime from taking Ukraine into NATO, end its bombardment of the Russian-speaking civilians of the donbass region and to make Ukraine a neutral, demilitarized and denazified state on its border is a campaign of constant, well-coordinated and unstoppable attrition. Russia has the resources in depth to continue this campaign indefinitely while its major trading partners stay onside and they are not only staying onside but such partners are growing in number. When the USA and its allies failed to get nations such as India and Saudi Arabia to drop Russia as a trading partner along with many others who refused to do this, it was clear that Russia had all the time in the world, all the economic capability and all the manpower resources it would ever need to achieve all its goals in Ukraine.
Russia did everything possible to avoid what is happening now in Ukraine. Through seven hard years of negotiations Russia tried to convince, first Poroshenko and then Zelensky, to walk with it along the road to peace and reconciliation. Only to end up betrayed by both and by Merkel and Hollande (then Macron) also. Russia offered to negotiate with the USA and NATO on establishing a new security architecture in Europe to ensure future peace. This was rejected by both. Russia, after seeing that there was no further avenue to establish long-term peace and security for its people, tried to pressure Zelensky into making good on his promises of the Minsk Accords. This failed though Russian then initiated peace negotiations in Minsk then in Istanbul just a month into the conflict. Boris Johnson, Joe Biden’s emissary, convinced Zelensky to keep fighting and end the peace negotiations.
A month or so ago Vladimir Putin announced a peace plan of his own. If the Ukrainian military vacated the regions that Russia has already mostly liberated then there could be a halt to hostilities and negotiations could then begin in earnest. This peace plan from Russia was rejected.
So, what do you think? Who is it that is seeking peace here and who wants the fighting, dying, injury and destruction to go on? Ask yourself who benefits from the conflict continuing? Not only the U.S., British and European military industrial complexes which are clearly profiting greatly now (and due to the diminishment of western armories will do so for decades to come in replenishing stocks) but also the strategic planners who see great gains through using the Kiev regime as a tool to weaken Russia. (Not that this is occurring presently, Russia is, in most aspects stronger than ever now, as is its military.) The only losers here are the Ukrainians. Just imagine, 1,000 or more per day leaving the battlefield dead or grievously wounded. This latter fact is the major fly in the western planners’ ointment, the fatal flaw (literally) in their scheme to weaken Russia. Ukraine is going to run out of the very soldiers it needs to keep the horrendous meat grinders at the front going and of course, these cold-blooded westerners will not risk their own sons death or injury there. Not even after the last Ukrainian trooper dies.
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