The Russians who were on the border when the Ukrainians came over were easy meat. The border is easy to cross there being no wall or barrier, simply border crossing places "guarded" by Russian troops who tend to be largely inexperienced in regard to direct combat. They are not fighters of the kind that are to be found along the line of contact in the Donbass region. Some, who may or may not have put up some resistance, were killed, but the vast majority will have surrendered.
The fact of the Ukrainians being able to cross over so easily to the Russian Kursk region can be seen as a failure by the Russian military. However, a certain truly independent commentator, Alexander Mercouris, received an email from one of his most well-informed followers who it appears has good contacts within Russia's high command, two months before the Kursk incursion began, saying that the Russian authorities had arranged this opening precisely to allow this incursion to occur. The Russian goal was to eliminate large numbers of the very best troops still available to the Kiev regime. We may believe this or not, but certainly I trust Mercouris enough after two and a half years of catching his nightly one-hour+ analysis to trust he received such an email at least. If this was indeed the Russian goal it is now being realized.
The latest figure for Ukrainian troops killed and wounded within the Kursk region stands at something over 12,000.
As you will know and as even some of Putin's harshest critics will surely know by now, is that Putin is a cool customer and no hot-headed madman with an emotional temperament where he will react foolishly and recklessly. Yes, the Ukrainians invaded Russian territory and have been hitting targets with drones within Russian territory for some time now. Neither has not brought about anything approaching a hot-headed reaction from Putin. For one thing he is doubtless aware that it would suit the Kiev regime very well if he overreacted. They fervently wish to get NATO directly involved. Russia's use of nuclear weapons must certainly seem to them to be one way to perhaps achieve this. But Putin is too smart, cool, calm and collected to fall for this.
It has not been the Kiev regime or its armed forces alone that have had relatively major effects in terms of hitting Russia hard at times. Outside of the pin prick attacks by drones, all else has been as a result of western missiles such as the U.S. HIMARS, British Storm Shadow and French Scalp missiles. The narrator makes a big case for the Ukrainians having done something unprecedented. The fact is they could have done extremely little indeed without all the nations of USA and NATO providing them with financial and military support. Without that Russia would certainly have attained its goals within a maximum of around a month in my estimation. This is why the Istanbul peace negotiations almost came to fruition. It was when these almost secured peace that the western powers stepped in, in the person of Boris Johnson and urged the regime to wage more war rather than seek a peaceful settlement.
Does anyone really think Russia didn't see the Ukrainian forces massing near the border with the Kursk region? Of course they did. Which reinforces the idea that Russia saw strategic advantage in allowing this incursion. Alexander Mercouris was initially very skeptical about the email he received two months before the incursion saying the Russians were going to allow it. He felt Putin would not wish to see Russian citizens put in this position. Of course this will likely be a purely military decision, but certainly Putin would have to be told. In recent weeks, since it took place, Mercouris has pretty much changed his mind as it has become clear that the incursion failed to achieve its primary goal, to take the Kursk nuclear power plant as a bargaining chip and Russian forces began to wipe out thousands of Ukrainian troops and vehicles, plus around 4-5 HIMARS launchers in the adjacent Ukrainian Sumy region used to hit Russian targets in the Kursk region.
As has been pointed out by many, there was no strategic reason for the Ukrainian attack on the Kursk region, with the exception of taking the power plant there. In any case, if Russia planned for this incursion to take place as the email to Mercouris says, Russia massing troops nearby would have been spotted by western satellites and the incursion may never have taken place. Similarly, Russian satellites would not have missed the build up of Ukrainian military assets in the neighboring Sumy region.
That Putin and the Russian military high command does not react impulsively to Ukrainian provocations, even a major one such as the Kursk incursion, should be something the western powers and pundits should be grateful for, not scornful of. Putin and his military high command have a much broader and strategic view of all that's happening. They know at every point that cool heads will always win out by keeping calm, discussing present events always in the context of the consequences of any subsequent actions they take. They know for instance that a secondary (though stated as primary) goal of the Ukrainians was to make Russia divert a large number of forces from the Donbass front line. While a few battalions were indeed diverted there the vast majority stayed exactly where they were having increasing success. The Russians know how to fight and win. It is not through instantly and recklessly responding to each and every provocation. And certainly and most absolutely not with nuclear weapons.
The Kursk incursion is now failing fast. The rot began after about a week and a half in. The Ukrainian military used around 3,000 troops in fast-moving vehicles to make it appear they had taken huge swathes of land. But what they in fact did was put themselves into what the Russians call a cauldron, where they are essentially surrounded within an area where they will find it hard or almost impossible to escape from. That is what we see now. Within weeks the Ukrainian horde that has been infecting Russia’s Kursk region will be eliminated. Will this be followed by a subsequent Russian offensive into the neighboring Sumy region of Ukraine? Quite possibly.
The Kursk incursion has been a sideshow, a failed gambit whose goal was twofold, seize Russia’s Kursk nuclear power station and make Russia divert large numbers of troops from the Donbass battlefront. Neither of these goals was realized. Now Russia has the Ukrainian troops sent to perform this fool’s errand on the run. Zelensky’s Kursk adventure at the expense of over 12,000 Ukrainian troops and large numbers of western military assets will only hasten his fall from power. Russia is in the driver’s seat across the entirety of the Donbass line of contact. The words, ‘Kursk Catastrophe’ will almost certainly feature in the final, ignominious epitaph of this most vile of modern day dictators.
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