The conflict in Ukraine will continue for the foreseeable future and may in fact continue, in one form or another, for a great many years ahead. What is at stake for both sides and the now clear and unresolvable enmity involved between Russia and West it will perhaps never conclusively end as the factors in play reveal intractable differences between the two sides. A full settlement where a peace closely resembling normality in the region appears completely unattainable at this point.
Talk of peace, negotiations to bring peace and peace formulas on all sides appear to be only public relations exercises to manipulate public opinion and the attitudes of allied national leaders on both sides. The chances of a true, stable, lasting peace I regard as zero at this point. Only one side or the other achieving total victory will achieve this. And even then moves will inevitably follow to wage a covert war of some kind as the overarching factors well above those purely regarding Ukraine will remain untouched regardless of that conflict’s outcome.
The western powers want two things that currently they are using Ukraine for as a potential springboard to achieving. They want to shore up, build and significantly increase in strength the reach, power and manipulative influence they have had globally since the end of world war II. This desire to dominate once again globally ties in precisely with the second goal which is to attain ‘full spectrum dominance’ brought about by a totally effective system of global surveillance. This latter goal of course cannot be achieved to its fullest extent without achieving the first. Defeating Russia in Ukraine is vital if the project to attain both goals is to move forward.
Nine Eleven was the genesis for both goals above. Prior to nine eleven the USA (and is proxies) were content (in the main, outside the sphere of neocon influence) to maintain the status quo whereby U.S. soft power maintained the interests of the USA worldwide with military bases in place to ensure no one had any ideas of opposing its power. Nine Eleven destroyed all faith in this setup being sufficient to maintain those interests. More and larger bases would not solve this new reality, more threats, bribes or inducements would also not be sufficient to do so. A new, overarching and far more ambitious strategy was required. The talks immediately after nine eleven clearly arrived at the following conclusions:
- ALL anti-western individuals, governments and systems of governance MUST be weakened, subverted, eliminated and replaced.
- A comprehensive system of in-depth global surveillance MUST be established to ensure no such event as nine eleven would ever again occur.
This is why the conflict in Ukraine is VERY unlikely to ever, conclusively end. If it ends in Russian favour then the two goals above, seen as utterly VITAL for U.S. national security will not be achieved. Too many major obstacles lie ahead of the defeat of Russia for it not to happen. The overthrow of the Iranian authorities, those of Syria and above all others such as Yemen, Somalia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Cuba, is China. Russia was chosen as a primary target after the semi-failures/semi-successes in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. These latter were sufficiently weakened, if not brought as hoped for to the conclusion desired.
This is not to say the Nine Eleven goals are achievable. As we have seen in the final four nations mentioned directly above, there is no realistic prospect of the rather naive new world order with the U.S. firmly in charge arriving any time soon. And certainly no prospect of its arrival at all in the form dreamed of as the ideal where the USA and its allies exist in perfect safety, comprehensively dominating all others and able to spy on and react to the activities and opinions of everyone at all times. No system, no matter how draconian and totalitarian wil suppress everyone 24/7 without stimulating the very revolt it seeks to quash.
But the above demonstrates how important the defeat of Russia is at least. For after Russia comes the big one, China. After the defeat of china the defeat of the small fry mentioned above becomes child’s play. But Russia is the major stumbling block that the collective west MUST remove if it is to have an open avenue of attack toward China. With Russia still able to mount resistance the ability of the USA & co. to have at it in full force against China is severely limited. Russia mUST be defeated. There MUST be regime change in Russia and its people brought to heel, its systems and present figures of authority eliminated and replaced.
So, the war in Ukraine between the collective west and Russia is about SO much more than Ukraine or the Ukrainian people. It is about the West defeating Russia, making Russia economically weak, about stirring up its people against Putin and the present Russian authorities, fomenting insurrection and attaining regime change. This was what the financial and economic sanctions against Russia were designed to do after pushing Russia into waging the present war. Russia was to collapse like a house of cards with the resulting chaos bringing about a ‘Russian Spring’ where western influence became paramount being framed as ‘friendly assistance’.
But Russia not only was not weakened by the western sanctions, it is clear that it has begun to thrive under them, and partly due to them. Niche areas of the Russian arena, vacated by high value western companies and brands have been filled by Russian-owned enterprises and products. The profits and of course the taxes from these developments now stay in Russia and are now free to be invested in Russia. The resultant growth of the Russian economy has been one of the most unexpected outcomes of the western sanctions and is generating much dismay in the West. In addition, the expected (by the West) withdrawal of Russia’s most prominent trading partners from it due to the Ukraine conflict didn’t happen. In fact the reverse occurred, they grew closer.
AS Russia was growing stronger Europe was growing much weaker. Without cheap Russian oil and natural gas the costs of western industry soared. Germany was hardest hit but all across Europe populations felt the difference. They began to feel much poorer than before the sanctions regime was put in place. The USA also felt it at first though Biden put a policy in place that added to the damage being done in Europe but gave the USA a shield of sorts to limit it. This was the Inflation Reduction Act. It should have been abundantly clear to the allies of the USA in Europe that they were being thrown under the bus by the U.S., and would always be whenever push came to shove. Europe then can be seen to be incapable of matching Russian power in the conflict in Ukraine. But what of the USA?
The USA, with a national debt heading toward $35 trillion and interest payments of $billions still manages to retain an exceptional status regarding its many economic woes due to the remaining power within its economy. However, the rot within U.S. society can plainly be seen across many diverse factors of which the average American is very aware. Illegal drug use, the remaining vast inequality, rising crime, police racism and abuse, a medical service either unattainable or likely to bankrupt, a political system where lobby groups and special interests prevail and a foreign policy making the USA a target of increasing dislike and disdain. Can the USA afford to continue to fund the Ukrainian regime? Just about. But can it afford to continue to supply weaponry and munitions to the degree the Kiev regime craves?
This latter point concerning what the Americans call “aid” is where te USA is weakest when it comes to continuing the fight with Russia. Not only are its stocks low and not being replenished anywhere near those of Russia, Russia is also increasingly destroying everything it does provide. Russia’s military industrial complex is running in high gear while the USA has just told the Ukrainian regime not to expect many more HIMARS missiles as it cannot possibly keep up with its demands. At the same time the American taxpayer is increasingly resistant to its government sending every more billions of their money to a the corrupt leaders of the most corrupt nation in Europe, if not the world.
While the West has increasing problems funding its war via Ukraine Russia has only positive aspects regarding its potential to keep up the fight. Russia’s allies are now lending a helping hand while the USA’s allies in Europe, such as Germany, have empty pockets and armories. China is lending Russia moral support and friendship. India too. North Korea and Iran are doing this too and more, they supply a very useful arsenal of missiles and drones for Russian use. Besides Russian MIC at full steam and allies helping on the battlefront Russia has more friends entering the scene via BRICS. Over forty nations are now in the queue to join. So, who is best placed to continue the fight in Ukraine and win… I leave it up to you to decide.
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