ARE WE NEARING THE END OF THE UKRAINE WAR? IF SO… WHAT THEN?

It appears the Ukraine war may end a few months from now in a ceasefire. Will the sides then move toward permanent peace and, in the years ahead, find mutually longed-for reconciliation?

Both sides are without doubt extremely weary of this war. Neither side wants more of their troops killed or wounded. All know the grief families and friends have suffered during this war. The Ukrainian and Russian people are brother and sister Slavs who undoubtedly would rather have any present or future in preference to this war. 

The Ukraine war began, as is usual for almost all wars, purely as a result of elite ambition. Extremely few, if any wars, ever began as a result of a popular uprising against another nation. Therefore, left to the everyday people of both nations there would be no war, no mass death, no destruction, no misery and no grief. The elites if they had their way would have to resolve their ambitions some other way. Not through them as pawns in their game.

This is why I see the next six to twelve months as the best opportunity in almost three years to reassert the will of the people of Ukraine and to end their domination by extremists. I have not a single doubt that they are thoroughly sick of this war and desperately want an end to it. Equally, the Russian-speaking people of the Donbass region who have suffered the loss of over ten thousand of their number at the hands of the Ukrainian military since 2014 wish this also. 

The time is approaching when those elites, who exerted the pressure to make this war happen and who have been endlessly fueling this war, will cease to push for ever more war. This at last will create the opportunity for an end to this war that the people of both sides have hoped and longed for during these years of military tragedy.

So… how will it be arranged? What is it that makes this time, almost three years into this war, the time when the hopes and dreams of everyday people of both sides can be realized? What are the circumstances we see now that provide hope for this kind of belated optimism?

The main reason for hope is that the western sponsors of the Ukrainian regime have reached the end of their capacity and willingness to further arm the regime in Kiev, reducing delivery of both funds and armaments and closing the door to the regime’s effective ability to fight defensively or to escalate the war significantly. With no prospect of Ukraine being invited to join NATO; no authorization for Ukraine to fire missiles deep inside Russian territory and no willingness by NATO nations to intervene in Ukraine directly Kiev is running out of road.

Without the direct support of the UKrainian regime detailed above it cannot possibly win against the Russian military. It will therefore have no capacity to hold back the ever-strengthening Russian force. It will, in light of all this, be forced to agree to negotiations in which I predict the political elites of the United States will dominate. Further changes will inevitably follow on from the above and from the determination of the Ukrainian people to once again experience peace, stability and responsible leadership in their land.

I predict we will see, over the next months and years, a sequence of events mirroring to some degree, the following:

1. The USA, then UK (v. reluctantly) and EU states agree they have come to the end of line in regard to military support for the Ukrainian regime.
2. The Kiev regime is then pressured by the above powers to end its military campaign against the Russian forces in the Donbass.
3. Negotiations (including the USA) begin to finalize a way forward where a permanent ceasefire can be agreed.
4. Eventually a ceasefire is indeed agreed.
5. New elections are arranged within what remains of Ukraine. These elections will bring a new president and government into being. It will also contain a referendum with quite possibly a number of questions, all of which will, in one form or another, concern the question of future relations with Russia.
6. A new president and government is duly elected which is at least neutral regarding Russia if not overtly pro-Russia.
7. The new government will change the constitution of Ukraine to once again state that it will remain neutral and not join any military bloc.
8. The new president and government of Ukraine will begin the slow road to reconciliation with Russia as one of its two primary trading areas.
9. The Donbass region will be built up to Russian standards while at the same time Ukraine will be built up by a combination of EU state grants and private western corporations.
10. Slowly but surely the two former warring nations, Russia and Ukraine will resume where the Maidan coup of 2014 separated them.

This is what I hope for both Russia and Ukraine. Ultimately, over a generation, two at the most, a recognition of all that they share and a huge decrease toward zero, regarding their differences and what separates them. They are one people who share a difficult past with different loyalties emerging from their historical experience. But, with the perseverance, trust and goodwill of th majority, constantly sidelining the minorities who wish to emphasize their differences, we can hope to see a wonderful rebirth of the Slavic family in the East.