The Russian military is pushing relentlessly forward, liberating strategic villages and positioning itself to take small towns all across the Donbass region and in particular within the territory west of Donetsk City. The Ukrainian forces are putting up some resistance but holes in the Ukrainian defense line are leaving areas without the support needed. This is due to the increasing problems of lack of manpower, the virtual elimination of Ukrainian air defenses and of inability to replace ammunition. Over the last year and more Russia has vastly increased its military manpower with an estimated 1,400 volunteers per day entering the Russian military and going on to receive extensive training.
While Russia’s manpower resources have steadily increased, those of the Kiev regime have decreased at an unsustainable level. In the last many months the attrition rate of Ukrainian troops being taken off the battlefield dead or wounded has run at a level of approximately 1,000 per day. The Kiev regime has, at the same time, struggled to recruit and train additional troops. Ukrainian men are hiding in their apartments, sometimes venturing out disguised as women or are fleeing to the Romanian border in an attempt to escape mobilization. All Ukrainian men not yet in the army know that to be dragooned off the streets and sent to the front with minimal training is a death sentence.
More and more of those Ukrainians who have been frogmarched to the front, often elderly men who absolutely should not be there (the average of a Ukrainian trooper is reported to be 45) cannot possibly stand for long against the highly trained and constantly refreshed Russian troops, given regular downtime away from the front lines. The Russian troops are, in addition, highly trained as opposed to Ukrainian conscripts who receive 6 weeks at most), armed with the latest kit and equipment (again in contrast to the lack of weapons in Ukraine) and have a constant supply of the various resources needed to sustain life at the front. In addition, the Russian military has at least a six to one advantage, and sometimes as high as a ten to one advantage in firepower in terms of artillery. Russian logistical supply is becoming more and more problem free as battle lines are straightened. Add to all this a Russian military complex that is now in high gear, consistently producing more planes, drones, missiles, artillery, tanks, shells and ammunition all the time. With hypersonic and supersonic missiles on stream and a Ukrainian air force all but decimated, allowing Russia to rule the skies, being realistic what chance does Ukraine have?
The Ukrainian offensive the summer before last was conclusively defeated by Russia with the Ukrainian military not even reaching Russia’s defensive lines, never mind the locations aimed for far behind them. At the cost of over thirty five thousand lives the regime managed to take almost no territory, all of which has now been taken back by Russia. The western powers talk of the possibility of Ukraine mounting another offensive in 2025, but with Russia now in full flood, taking more territory every day that dawns and Ukraine struggling in almost every possible area, the chances of this occurring are decreasing every day and are essentially zero.
In addition to all this, if that were not enough, the western powers are both running out of military supplies to send to Ukraine while at the same time losing all ability or willingness to keep send endless $billions to a side quite obviously losing. While the West loses faith in an always atrociously bad bet in Ukraine the majority of the world’s great powers are uniting in opposition to these constantly bad bets the West keeps making. The Kazan summit just ended showed this with utmost clarity.
It must be evident to any serious observer by now that the independent military experts are correct when they say that Russia will prevail even if it is simply on the basis of a far greater ratio of resources compared to that available to the Ukrainian regime. This despite the pouring of weaponry and monetary support into Ukraine by the western powers, the level of which is set to diminish greatly over the coming months.
When it became clear that Russia had withstood the onslaught of western financial and economic sanctions, and even began to prosper economically while the West suffered, it was clear Russia would prevail. It would have been sensible and pragmatic for the western powers to convince Zelensky to halt his futile resistance when this became clear. It is obvious that the West was relying on a double whammy of a weakened Russia through sanctions and isolation by the majority of nations along with the expense of Ukrainian blood and treasure, to effect a victory. Now, after the complete failure of all the West, Zelensky and his military have done, there can be no stopping Russia regarding the attainment of its goals.
However the western allies and their media try to slice it the end will be humiliating for them. The USA and UK will be seen to have failed spectacularly. In addition it is inevitable that will see heads fall all across the EU. Brussels will have to eat crow and cough up billions from EU taxpayers to put rump Ukraine back into some kind of decent shape again. Russia will reinforce its governance in all its new territories, bringing all the benefits of Russian pensions, health care, education, salaries, infrastructure such as airports, rail lines, motorways etc. etc.
Ten years from now the entire region will be transformed and any historian looking back will surely remark at the utterly disastrous folly of the West in engaging in an effort, pushed by the USA to weaken Russia that rebounded so disastrously upon them. The historians of the future will surely shake their heads in utter disbelief that such arrant and unmitigated stupidity, flagrant loss of life and catastrophic self-inflicted wounds could ever be allowed to take place.
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