The analysis demanding a perspective change in Russia insists Vladimir Putin must toughen up his stance in the face of the belligerence that has been a constant from the USA and its sidekick, Britain for long years past, that he is being badly advised and has been led into a policy of appeasement that is much weaker than it need be.
My own view is that Putin and his advisers are very aware of all the factors involved regarding the attitude and malign intent of the USA, UK and the West in general. Putin’s Munich speech in 2007 shows, it seems to me, that he was well aware of the goal by the U.S. elites and their allies that a unipolar world was theirs for the taking.
This is in part where I diverge from the opinion of those who consider Putin could be tougher in standing against the West in response to its obvious desire to unseat him and install a western puppet in his place. I do not believe Putin or his colleagues are badly advised. I have seen this viewpoint expressed many times by those who are convinced Putin and his closest colleagues are not being as bold as they should be.
Russia did show it could engage militarily in Syria, that it had that capacity when the need arose. But unless there is such a theater of war already in existence I see no potential for making idle threats that will come to nothing and I am totally convinced this is not Putin’s style.
Russia is not the USSR and nowhere near. Russia’s economy is on a par with that of South Korea. This provides not inconsiderable strength but those who think Russia can afford to throw its weight around to create leverage are mistaken. If you add the combined military strength of the USA, its allies in Europe and further afield plus that of NATO you can easily see that military muscle to gain ground is not a viable option. If you flex your muscles you must be ready to use them. Neither side has an appetite for war. A war is relatively inconceivable despite the fears of some, too much would be lost by all sides.
The idea that Russia making aggressive noises would bring a good result, make others pay attention and bring some reward is in my view completely misguided. Both sides know that gains can only come from pressure. In recent years NATO has been relentlessly pressuring Russia while Washington and Whitehall also pile in with assertions of wrongdoing in an effort to undermine Russian sovereignty and weaken the president.. In all honesty I don’t see how, with any hope of an improvement in Russia’s fortunes, Putin and his advisers can play anything approaching a similar game and win.
It is my strong feeling which has grown from many years of observation that Putin’s tactics, mild as they may seem are precisely those that have been necessary. Russia is not in such a strong position that there are large against to be made by matching the West’s policy of aggression. With this being the case Russia has no better option than to simply bear the pressure it is under and survive it and all the attendant sanctions that go with it, find new friends and constantly to explore new markets to expand the Russian economy.
Putin’s wise words, calm bearing, deep insight and thoughtful planning provide the correct way forward for Russia in the prospect of being both strong in sovereignty and cooperative in spirit within a multi-polar world. Russia certainly does not have anywhere near the power of the USA and its allies. The hypersonic weapons which have been developed recently are vital and will help massively to safeguard Russia from attack but I am certain they will never be used in any preemptive attack.
Surely it is clear that it is China that is the supreme economic rival to the USA. Already China trades more with Europe than the USA and with her Belt and Road initiative this will inevitably increase and with it political and diplomatic influence. Russia with Nordstream2 will have additional leverage also, but Russia’s day in full economic sunlight is still some years off. By that time China will have surged to even greater economic heights and both nations can look forward to rising together.
A defense pact between Russia and China looks like an enticing prospect however, China has affirmed this is not on the cards. The two nations will not form any official military alliance to defend themselves, there will be no pact, at least not for the foreseeable future. They will certainly work closely with each other taking cognizance of each others’ needs. Russian-Chinese trade will increase year on year, most likely substantially. They will work on the Lunar Space Station announced recently... but no military-based alliance will emerge.
China knows, as does Russia there can be no leverage gained by posturing militarily. China will use such methods to some degree in the South China Sea as regards Taiwan but will absolutely not use them to protect Chinese interests vs. the USA, just as Russia cannot against Europe and the U.S.
If you cannot threaten with any hope of achieving something, if your aggressive voice is not backed by threat of action it will be met smiles of condescension and used as furl for propaganda. The best policy is to keep a quiet smile facing westward and so demonstrate you will never be fazed by bullying tactics but will always keep a laser-like focus on those attempting to harm you and your next moves to stymie such attempts.
China is looking after herself, that is the task of national leaderships. Russia is doing the same. Iran too. They cannot afford to join alliances that don’t materially aid defense but only create a facade without true substance behind it. Everyone on this stage knows that there are no military solutions going forward, only economic ones. I believe Putin and Xi know this and know it in depth.
Putin and Xi are pressing forward with economic advances and this is the best defense of all. Xi has the greater advantage in this but Putin also sees bright prospects ahead for the Russian economy also.
The present holding pattern, especially for Russia, is vital. Putin absolutely cannot afford any rash moves, especially not ones that are indicative of posture only that do not produce any meaningful and obvious results. “It’s the economy stupid” still holds true in this global context. Wars or the threat of war when no one seriously expects one will bring nothing but a debilitating weakness due to resource expenditure needed on the home front to produce the life chances of the Russian and Chinese people.
The West, especially after Covid is on a downward trajectory. Its elites know it and can see China rising and know she will rise ever upward as the West descends. China will make massive economic inroads in Europe and the ever-present U.S. influence since the end of WWII will inevitably be pushed back. In my view this process will extend with few limits worldwide as China rises further and further to economic dominance over the USA.
The time it will take for U.S. influence to dwindle and die in terms of throwing its weight around will in my opinion not be long in geopolitical terms. To react in any way that tries to push this forward via some sort of aggressive stance is doomed to failure I believe and I am sure Putin, Xi and their advisers know this well.
Sit tight. The change is already under way. It will occur right before our eyes. The chain reaction concerning the West’s economic demise has begun and the next five to ten years will see momentous changes arriving leading to what I foresee as a new geopolitical landscape entirely.
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