With its offer of aid to Afghanistan and an admonishment to other nations to lead the Taliban rather than pressure them China is taking advantage of an opportunity to show it is more than capable of leading the world on a new path.
The brutality of the western way has been obvious for decades now. Threats, accusations, campaigns of subversion (both overt and covert) mean-spirited verbal attacks, tariffs, economic and financial terrorism and much else have defined its reign. That reign is finally coming to an end.
Murderous wars preceded by bare-faced lies are going to end with the humiliating and fully-deserved defeat of the West in Afghanistan. Such wars and their aftermath have become unsustainably unaffordable and devastating in terms of losses on all sides and a final dawning of the counterproductive outcomes of each and every war of choice engaged in has surely come.
This does not mean that the USA, UK and their partners in crime will relent altogether. Their group-thought exceptionalist insanity will continue but will become relegated to covert activities and the generation of accusation-led propaganda plus the use of agents within target nations alongside cyber warfare. The war being waged by western elites against all rising powers not aligned to them will certainly continue. They will not acknowledge defeat until a much later stage. That laters stage has come significantly further forward due to the humiliating debacle of Afghanistan for the West.
China’s influence in Afghanistan, along with that of both Russia and Iran cannot help but be immense now that the western invader has been so unceremoniously thrown out. Not that these three will behave in anything like the same manner as those being shown the door. Now we will see a hugely more reasoned approach and one where an embrace of tolerance not seen before rises. The Chinese way is to show good faith, to offer investment in return for stability, to maintain good relationships through trust and fulfilled promises. In Russia also the same approach will be seen. There will be no lectures from above backed by threats, no false routes taken through lies, bribery, blackmail or other efforts to exert pressure. Hopefully, Iran too will act in a similar manner.
The elites of the West are in shock. The image of the West in the Middle East is now in ruins and there is no obvious route back to the prestige it craves or the ability to subjugate and control others that constitutes a primary goal. Its tail is well and truly between its legs. Of course, in time, efforts will be made, but the braggadocio of the near past must surely be gone and for some time to come. America isn’t back, all that is seen is its back running away instead.
This is nothing less than a major turning point in the geopolitical history of the world. Not that such events have not occurred in the past which saw the elites of the West pick themselves up, dust themselves down and get on their high horses once again. The Suez Crisis and Vietnam hit the UK and USA hard. But with time the archetypal arrogance and aggression they were used to exhibiting returned, breasts were beaten again and the drums of war too, beaten with renewed fervour. But I strongly suspect this time is different.
What makes now so different from the previous occasions when the elites of the West resurrected their determination to dominate all others by any means necessary to them? The obvious difference is the economic rise of China as the primary competitor for influence with the USA through its ever-strengthening economy. The speed of growth of China has decreased in recent years however it is still far higher in the percentage of GDP development than any nation of the West. It will soon eclipse the ability of the USA in economic terms and in tandem will increasingly eclipse it in terms of influence also. Afghanistan is the start of this latter process. It will be progressively added to as China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ comes increasingly into productive operation.
In the Near and Far East, in Africa and now in the Middle East China’s influence will be increasingly felt… and though there will be problems, its influence will, I estimate, be overwhelmingly benign. Much of the influence will be simply trade-based, agreements and contracts will be negotiated and signed, mutually beneficial investments will arise and improvements to infrastructure and incomes will generate greater wellbeing. In addition to enhanced relationships across all nations where Chinese economic power arrives there will come also expert diplomatic skills where good faith is recognized, free of the threat and military muscle approach seen from the West.
Over and over the new approach by China and its allies will bear wonderful fruit. The tolerance of diversity shown by them will make relations between them and their newfound friends stronger and far better founded through the depth of trust involved than any previous relationships. The worm of mistrust has always lain inside the western approach, fed so often by the likelihood of betrayal and the breaking of trust, the reneging on agreements and the ever-present threat of abuse of power.
A new geopolitical paradigm is on the way. The intolerant West is about to be shown the door in more than merely one nation. Afghanistan will inevitably be followed by others. Iraq will be next in line. Syria, already shaking off the malignant outcomes of local and western interference, is poised ready also. Egypt and the Palestinians are bound to be brought within the same orbit of tolerance, investment and mutually beneficial cooperation and investment also.
The world will look on as all this becomes increasingly clear. The West will be forced into retreat by a velvet campaign that it has no weapon to counter. Its bad faith in the past and malign hand with a knife behind the back will be rejected, at least for the most part. Its regional agent, Israel, will of course continue its deal with a similar devil to itself. That at least will not change and is likely to be strengthened even further by more of the U.S. taxpayer’s increasingly hard-earned cash.
We will all see the difference soon. The difference between the age of global western power games, laced with divisive violence and dripping with others’ blood, will contrast hugely and clearly with the new era of mutually beneficial tolerance, willingness to understand diversity and work in good faith to find optimum solutions. The multipolar world is returning to provide not only a balance to the unipolar ambitions of the West but an example of how a truly civilized world might not only be dreamed of, but achieved.
The eye-opening, and long-sought comparison to the ways of the West, will now be obvious to all.
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