We are in an area of many shades of grey.
By most expert accounts Russia did attempt to mount a campaign where a minimal number of civilian casualties would be created and where an equally minimal amount of damage to vital infrastructure and the minimal damage to the most fundamental civilian needs would occur. However, initial, hopeful goals of a short campaign where the Ukrainian authorities would accept Russian demands faced with the consequences of not doing so, did not transpire.
Backed by the western powers to the hilt Zelensky took an entirely different path to that which I suspect the Russians believed he might. They appeared to have banked on an outcome where Zelensky bowed to the pressure he was under to finally implement the minsk agreements.
It is clear that the Russians very much hoped for a peaceful outcome for hadn’t they tried for seven long years to achieve this? In February last year they desired to end the conflict with as little death and destruction as possible. It is not a fiction that Russians feel extremely close in many ways to the Ukrainian people. Putin himself wrote a long essay on this topic. For most Russians, Ukrainians are, simply put, their brothers and sisters. Tragically for the Ukrainians and also for the Russians this war has become an internecine conflict, a battle within a family almost and this can’t help but make both sides grieve due to this tragedy.
Russia is hurting… but the Ukrainian people are quite clearly hurting more. Millions have left Ukraine seeking safety from the storm that has embodied them and which is none of their doing. Hundreds of thousands of families have been split apart with men having to stay, and possibly fight. To possibly die. In Russia the anxiety without doubt runs deep due to that most feared occurrence within Russian society has returned once more to haunt them. There must be few, if any societies that fear the effects of war more than that of Russia.
Now, as the conflict escalates more and more the number dying and being grievously injured is rising to new heights. Ukraine has mounted an offensive against now heavily built up lines of defence in the areas they have taken in the Donbass. It is clear that whatever the Ukrainian people may want, their leaders and their supporters among the western powers, want to escalate in order to achieve a better bargaining position.
What of the West and how their political elites see things? What of the general public?
In Europe there has been a huge outpouring of fellow-feeling for Ukraine and for Ukrainians. Many households shelter Ukrainians in their hour of greatest need. There has been a huge outpouring of anger too, against Russia. Russia is seen as having brought the evil scourge of war to their doorstep and, due to there being no understanding of the long timeline since 2014 and even less concerning Russian motivations only one side of this coin is being seen. Indeed a general consensus that there can be NO adequate motivation for what is going on is held as an uninspected fact. Therefore, in the West we have a purely one-sided view of the conflict.
Western mainstream press and media have, from the start, taken the view that there can be no possible justification for Russia’s attack upon Ukraine, that it is totally without merit, unjustifiable, unwarranted and unprovoked. This very simple analysis is generally, as far as anyone can tell, held to be true by the vast majority of westerners. Though not by all it must be said. Most westerners believe that Russia has no case whatsoever to pursue this war and hold the opinion that this is a case of pure evil and a deadly, highly oppressive and destructive evil at that. The case regarding a full rendering of justice for BOTH sides is therefore closed.
Western political leadership both leads and reflects this black and white view by the general public described above that permeates western societies across Europe and in the United States. With press, media, public and political elites all thinking and acting as one there is no appetite at all for compromise or for giving any thought whatsoever to the Russian position.
What is the Russian position?
The leadership of Russia considers that what it is doing in Ukraine is an existential necessity for Russians and the Russian state. They consider that Russia has been brought to make a decision it attempted to avoid for seven years where they pursued the peaceful goals of the Minsk process. They feel the western world has been consistently aggressive using Ukraine as a battering ram with which to shake the foundations of their nation. They observed NATO coming ever closer, and over the last two decades have attempted to get their message over to the western powers. This was predicted by the architect of the West’s containment policy of the Soviet Union, Mr George Kennan who said it explicitly. His life work was to manage the West’s relationship with Russia and he saw his life’s work being ruined by the advancement of NATO upon Russia.
Where is all this going?
At this point in time we have a dangerous, highly entangled mess where compromise on neither side looks at all likely. In fact the prospects for this appear to recede further with every day that passes. One escalation follows another with both sides completely unable or unwilling to back down but seeing only the necessity to counter the tactics of the other with ever greater determination. Where that will eventually lead and by use of what further tactical approaches or involving what advanced weaponry can only be a matter for speculation, but at this point there are no good signs to provide hope that a halt will be called at any given point along the way.
What of the rest of the world?
Our world is again at war. Though having said that, in reality it is only two portions of our world to whom this war represents an existential issue. Most of the global south see it as a hopefully limited quarrel in a distant location that they hope will not spill over in too many aspects onto them. For them it is an unpleasant occurrence equivalent to a bitter and noisy dispute between two neighbours within earshot that disturbs the relative calm of their own lives.
These are incredibly dangerous times. Two powerful blocs with opposing belief systems are locked in battle. Neither can afford to lose and both are utterly determined to win.
The weapons each is willing to use are not particularly limited in scale or power and dangerously, even the most extreme may be contemplated as each new rupture in relations between them takes place.
The end result which everyone fears of course hardly requires a mention to clarify it. As the stakes become ever higher for both sides who feel that losing would mean absolute disaster for them and therefore they MUST win and by every means possible… or risk annihilation, humiliation and destruction of all hope, respect and security we must all ask ourselves if they will halt at the doorway to that final weapon of all weapons that has the potential to annihilate us all.
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