PRIGOZHIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER GLOBAL DAMAGE

Right at the moment Prigozhin, head of the Russian Wagner Group decided on his mutinous act today, the USA and India were celebrating a new start to their relations. Only a week or two ago it was clear that the U.S. elites had decided they must start love-bombing the Indians. It also appears that there was intent to do the same regarding the Chinese. These activities were obviously designed to effect two goals. To undermine Russia of course, giving the impression that it was more isolated than seemed to be the case, create a cleavage between these nations and Russia by drawing them by these means toward them, and to stop the drift of nations toward BRICS.

Of course much of the seeming success of the Modi visit to Washington may turn out to be superficial and will not affect India's relationship with Russia one whit. But these days so much store is set by appearances and these facades seem to have more power behind them than in the past. This due to the apparent fickle nature of nations at this time in the absence of overwhelming U.S. power. Nations are drifting toward allegiances in the east rather than the west these days. This shoring up operation is clearly an effort also to redress the balances, even if it is only a surface phenomenon rather than anything deeper. The political elites of the USA need an urgent confidence boost right now as events in Ukraine look like delivering them an even worse bout of humiliation than even the withdrawal from Afghanistan gave them.

And they need to give the appearance that it is they who are unified with the world not increasingly Russia. They desperately want to disrupt the idea that Russia is being accepted and that they are being left out in the cold.

Prigozhin has now given them a huge gift. The leaders of the collective west can now point to the "unstable" Russia that is revealing itself as a nation at war with itself and a militarised government that is on the edge of being replaced. That the replacement is just as fierce an enemy of them as he is against the Russian Ministry of Defence is irrelevant at this time when they see the potential to disturb how Russia is seen by the nations they want to bring back into the fold.

Biden has undermined the partial love-bombing operation that Blinken took part in, in Beijing, but the main one seems to have been wholly successful regarding India.

This wrong-foots Russia at a time when it appears the Ukrainian regime is readying a huge push, probably to coincide with the next meeting of its sponsors on July 10th.And just as multiple nations avidly seek to join BRICS.

It couldn't have come at a worse time if it was planned that way.

Happily for the Russian president, government and military a deal was done through assistance from Alexandr Grigorievič Lukašenko of Belarus. The details of the agreement made have still to be made public but are rumoured to include the replacement of Prigozhin as titular head of the Wagner Group and also Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu, Minister of Defence of Russia and Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Military.

For all intents and purposes the confusing events of the last 24 hours are resolved. The Wagner forces have returned to their bases and according to reports they will soon sign contracts to be linked inextricably to the Russian Army. Tomorrow it is thought attention will turn once again to defeating the Ukrainian enemy and the incremental liberation of the Donbass region.

Russia will, due to the brevity of this incident escape major damage, much to the chagrin of Zelensky, his entourage and western political support staff. The unity of the Russian people to act in support of their president in times of danger to national sovereignty appears to have been bolstered. The last 24 hours will be forgotten quite quickly due to this short episode at the end of Prigozhin’s time as Wagner’s master of ceremonies. Just as long as this is indeed the end of this particularly hazardous road.