HOW MIGHT THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE END? WHAT ARE THE PRIMARY FACTORS WHICH WILL DECIDE THAT END?

What is the most likely end game in Ukraine and what are the most important factors that will form the parameters of the conclusion that brings an end to all major hostilities?

The factors lying behind the military assets and resources of either side must ultimately bring about the conditions where one side or the other eventually prevails. What can we detect on this basis currently?

Military assets and resources

Munitions:

Ukraine/ During the announcement made yesterday concerning the delivery of cluster munitions to the Ukrainian military by the USA, mention was made of the depletion of munitions held by the Ukrainians, i.e. that they are running out of supplies.

Russia/ Despite numerous reports in western media since the start of the conflict that Russia will soon run out of missiles and other forms of munition there is no sign of this occurring and reports indicate Russia has boosted production threefold.

Air Power:

Ukraine/ The Ukrainian air force has been so depleted that during the current counteroffensive by the Ukrainian military it is unable to offer air cover. It appears certain now that the F16 fighter jets long sought by Ukraine will not now be delivered.

Russia/ The Russian air force has what is termed 'air superiority. The significance of this is that Russia can mount air campaigns with little to no fear of engagement from the Ukrainian air force. Strong evidence of this has been seen in recent days by the many engagements undertaken by Russia's 'Alligator' helicopter gunships.

Military Vehicles:

Ukraine/ The loss of huge numbers of military vehicles including the latest tanks imported from NATO countries, has required a change of tactic by the Ukrainians whereby infantry attacks mostly without the assistance of military fighting vehicles or tanks are being deployed.

Russia/ Deliveries of fresh military vehicles including tanks to the battlefront is continuing daily with a reorganisation of the production of tanks and other vehicles taking place in Russia to produce greater numbers in future.

Artillery:

Ukraine/ Ukrainian military sources speak of being outgunned by the Russian artillery and this many times over. Ukraine has no ability to produce any military vehicles in required quantities and must import them on a constantly replenishing basis from the USA and NATO nations. This replenishment is now reducing and the latest list of deliveries is the lowest seen thus far.

Russia/ Production of artillery pieces shows no sign of slowing with speedy transport via rail lines to the battlefront.

Drones:

Ukraine/ It is reported that Ukrainian drones are not getting through to their targets in most case. Russian electronic warfare devices appear to be highly successful in causing them to lose their GPS coordinates for targeting and/or are being shot down by Russian air defence systems.

Russia/ Russia has been developing superior drone quality and destructive capacity in recent months and these drones are increasingly being used on the battlefield. Factories in Russia are now producing large numbers of highly sophisticated drones on a daily basis.

Missiles:

Ukraine/ Ukraine is dependent upon the supply of both HIMARS and Stormshadow missiles from the USA and UK respectively. Complaints have previously been made by Ukraine's two main sponsors that Ukraine is running through such missiles faster than they can possibly be replenished.

Russia/ Russia has geared up its production of missiles and has a wide range of these including those capable of hypersonic speeds. The replenishment of these to the battlefront has been made extremely efficient with a high speed rail connection via Crimea.

Military Personnel:

Ukraine/ The Ukrainian military has been haemorrhaging military personnel since the beginning of the conflict and it appears that the vast majority of the most professionally trained troops are now no longer on the battlefield having been killed or severely injured. Ukraine is now largely dependent upon new conscripts into its military who are given only a few weeks training.

Russia/ Russia has a highly professional, well-trained army with an estimated 1,4000 new volunteers entering training each day. This in addition to the 300,000 reservists and approximately 60,000 volunteers previously given training and added to the Russian forces to free up the most experienced fighters to engage the enemy on the front lines..

You will notice that all of the factors above mitigate in Russia's favour to varying degrees. It is thus that the conclusion is inescapable. Barring some massive unexpected intervention from the USA, UK, EU or NATO such as a nuclear strike, a chemical weapon attack, a strike upon the Zaporozhzhia nuclear power station or similar event it is impossible to see any scenario where Ukrainian goals are met.

What therefore are we left with?

The timeline of events is likely to follow a path not dissimilar to that described below:

1. Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia's defensive positions fizzles out with hardly any gains made.

2. Western political elites express their great disappointment regarding the total failure of the Ukrainian military to make any significant gains in its offensive.

3. Behind the scenes contacts between the Americans and Russians move toward a scenario where public announcements of ongoing negotiations are made.

4. America demands a ceasefire from both warring sides to allow negotiations to start and respite from conflict while prisoner exchanges can be made and troop rotations can take place in the absence of heavy artillery exchanges, the dead and injured can be taken care of etc. etc. (The ceasefire is only sporadically successful with many breaches reported over the week after its initiation. By the tenth day the ceasefire no longer holds and all campaigns across the battle lines resume as before.)

5. On hearing of the back channel negotiations that have been taking place between the Americans and the Russians Zelensky and his spokespersons complain bitterly that they have been excluded from the talks and that they continue to be excluded. They are impotent in regard to any possible threat they can use to stop this process and continue to fume in private and to any who will listen to them.

6. Britain's political elites also express dismay that the Americans have initiated talks with the Russians without keeping them in the loop.

7. Despite criticism expressed by the Ukrainians, British and perhaps others within the orbit of the collective west America and Russia continue over very long days slowly to draw closer to major agreements in their talks. (Assurances are given to both the Ukrainians, the British, and all other interested parties that nothing will be 'set in stone' and that they will be consulted and have a say in the final outcome.

7a. The talks hit a roadblock that causes a delay of some days or weeks while an attempt to bridge the gap between the two sides takes place. The roadblock having been dismantled through hard bargaining (with Russia unrelenting in its demands) talks continue. This cycle repeats several times over the following six month period.

8. As the talks continue so too does the conflict. Ukraine, having achieved no significant gains during its summer offensive has subsequently lost more territory to the now advancing Russian army.

9. An interim statement published by both the U.S. and Russian leadership emerges. Both sides are at pains to clarify that it does not deliver anything approaching a final settlement but both state that it reflects significant progress and recommends that serious consideration be given to it by all involved toward an eventual conclusive peace settlement.

10. A worldwide debate then ensues with Eurasian, Asian and Global South nations along with many in Latin America urging the warring parties to iron out their major differences using the peace negotiation documents as the basis of an end to hostilities.

11. The 'Peace Settlement' documents as they come to be known recommend the way forward through an eventual power-sharing agreement between Russia and Ukraine to be fully ironed out after a complete ceasefire is announced by both sides and new elections take place in Ukraine to coincide with the presidential elections in Russia (in 2024).

12. In the run-up to the agreement that transpires over point 11. above there are several periods of hope followed by periods of great dismay and further fighting as it becomes clear that the current leadership of Ukraine refuses to countenance any loss of territory at all to Russia, holding this absolutist position as inviolate and sacrosanct.

13. The agreement to accept whatever changes may come with the 2024 election results holds while the United Nations and OSCE provide peacekeeping and observation forces to report violations to the ceasefire that is broadly holding.

14. Despite intermittent breaches of the ceasefire the 2024 elections take place and their results announced to an expectant world.

15. Putin returns to power as expected in Russia. However, Zelensky and the Ukrainian authorities in place since the conflict began are ousted by a Ukrainian population desperate to see the conflict ended.

16. The political changes effected in Ukraine bring a sea change in attitudes and relatively soon a final settlement is made whereby all territory taken by Russia since February 24th 2022 remains governed by the Russian Federation but it is agreed that progressively a power sharing mode of governance will gradually be moved toward where all sides of the Donbass population will have a proportional say and a system of methodologies where power can be shared will be put in place under the jurisdiction of the United Nations.

17. Russia agrees its share of reparations within the areas of Ukraine it has not occupied and the USA and its allies agree to assist in reparations within the areas of the Donbass damaged or destroyed between 2014 and 2024.

18. The new president and government of Ukraine agree and vote for an amendment to the Ukrainian constitution stating that Ukraine will remain a neutral state in perpetuity.

19. All extremist militant organisations are banned from displaying any regalia and from bearing or storing arms and will be subject to the law and will be excluded from all public forums at pain of immediate imprisonment.

20. The Ukrainian military will essentially be disbanded leaving only a token force performing only the most essential ceremonial duties.

21. Russia and Ukraine negotiate trade agreements and initiate the first tentative cultural exchanges that will lead in time to the softening of attitudes and take full advantage of the new spirit evident in Ukraine that clearly and without question seeks perpetual peace and a complete end of enmity between the two nations.

22. Normality between Russia and Ukraine slowly emerges.

23. The USA, UK, EU and NATO leadership lick their wounds and very gradually begin to acknowledge that their goal to retain and expand their global power was an error and begin to adapt themselves to the concept of multipolarity and the world without them as the ultimate authority deciding policy for others.

24. All the political leaders who forwarded the Ukraine conflict as a means of weakening and undermining Russia gradually lose power, most at the ballot box and others through their voluntary resignation having recognised the part they played in bringing the world to the brink of nuclear war.

25. The world recognises it is truly at the beginning of an exciting new era where the threat of interference from the western powers has been all but eliminated and through its new systems of global cooperation sets to work creating the civilisation that the most idealistic of them had held in their hearts for so long but had never had any expectations they would ever see.