How are they doing there?
Without air cover and outgunned many times over regarding artillery the Ukrainians are finding it extremely difficult to make any serious headway. They have taken some eight villages within the grey zone so far, some of which they have subsequently lost again. During the attacks they have had major losses regarding both men and materiel. The majority of the so-called ‘game changer’ ‘Leopard 2’ tanks received from various NATO states including Germany, have been destroyed. Absent anything approaching air cover to protect attacking troops, or those moving forward in the hope of attacking, the Ukrainian military, in coordination with NATO are using HIMARS and Stormshadow missiles to take out Russian artillery and ammunition dumps.
It is certain that in the next few days the Ukrainian military will initiate a concerted attempt to achieve some major success. This is due to the necessity to create an event of sufficient magnitude to impress those attending the next NATO summit which starts on July eleventh in Vilnius, Lithuania. Already, today, July 4th there has been a large-scale Ukrainian assault on Russian artillery and munitions supply in the region of Bakhmut/Arteomovsk. These assaults using HIMARS/Stormshadow missiles were many by comparison with anything seen elsewhere across the battle lines either today or in fact on any previous day. On the face of it this indicates that Arteomovsk/Bakhmut may well be the site of the spectacular event the Ukrainian regime needs to impress its NATO sponsors on July 11th to 12th. Of course tomorrow may bring a similar series of strikes elsewhere. We will see.
Apart from arranging some kind of spectacular achievement, how do Ukrainian chances stand at the moment?
The last month since the Ukrainian military began moving its forces toward the outer Russian lines has been a dismal failure during which a massive number of Ukrainians have died and an equally massive number of military vehicles have been destroyed. Russia has maintained air superiority over the entire period and particular use of the Russian ‘Alligator’ helicopter has proven devastating against both troops and vehicles. Ukraine has been unable to down a singly aircraft of the Russian air force during this period. The Ukrainians appear to have been totally unprepared also for the Russian minefield with many Ukrainian military vehicles hitting mines on a regular basis. Russia has deployed a distance mining methodology which has succeeded in taking out Ukrainian forces and vehicles when they both advance and retreat to regroup before advancing once more.
As regards replenishment of numbers the Ukrainians have once again resorted to forced conscription into the Ukrainian army. The vast majority of trained Ukrainian troops have been taken off the battlefield either killed or severely wounded over the near 18 previous months. This was due in most part to Ukrainian high command fighting over every square kilometre of territory, throwing troops into areas where they were wiped out at a rate of some 400 to 600 per day. The freshly conscripted recruits being forced into the Ukrainian army now receive at best two weeks training before being sent to the front. By contrast Russia has conserved its forces, keeping them in relatively safe positions while Russian artillery softens up Ukrainian positions to the required extent before sending them in. Regarding fresh forces Russia is experiencing an ongoing surge of volunteers wishing to join the Russian army numbering some 1,500 per day. The volunteers are receiving several months training before being given limited experience of the battle front before receiving even more training behind the line of conflict.
As with western armouries the stock of Ukrainian weaponry and ammunition-supply is fast dwindling. In addition, Russia is targeting and destroying between four and eight Ukrainian arms dumps per day on average. This has got to have an effect eventually along with Russia taking out railway infrastructure, arms dumps and vehicle repair workshops on a regular basis. Then we must add the undoubted superiority of Russian air power, only partially utilised to date. As stated before, Russia has air superiority and this superiority is growing by the day. Only today, July 4th Russia brought down two Ukrainian planes, one of which was flying quite some way from Russian lines at the time. In recent weeks Russia has successfully put several new military satellites in orbit which are now providing extremely accurate data on Ukrainian positions, hardware and troop movements.
If there is a surge of attacks from the Ukrainians over the next few days as expected it may well be enough to sufficiently impress those attending the NATO summit. Ukraine’s sponsors will then no doubt promise yet another tranche of money and promises of more weapons… though not, it is thought, a promise of F16 fighters. The most likely promise will be the immediate transfer of Lockheed-Martin MGM-140 ATACMS tactical missiles. These will be described as the latest ‘game changer’ weapons with which Ukraine will “win” the war. However, as with all previous ‘game changer’ weapons this is almost inevitably not going to live up to the name. The array of Russian forces and military might is simply too great for any so-called ‘game changer’ device to make that much of a difference.
No doubt the Ukrainians will make as much use of the ATACMS missiles as they have of the HIMARS and Stormshadow missiles that preceded them which though significant (at least at first) certainly did not change the direction of the conflict which has never varied for any significant time throughout the last eighteen months of combat. Russia has taken a vast amount of territory and has waged a war of attrition against rapidly dwindling Ukrainian forces for a large proportion of the last six months at the very least. A partial mobilisation took place in Russia around six months ago which added some 300,000 additional troops from reserve forces who had already served and an additional 70,000 or so volunteers who went immediately into many months of training. All these additional Russian troops are either manning the enormously long, multi-layered defensive positions awaiting any Ukrainians breaking through from the grey zone or are now active on the front lines.
So, what are the Ukraine military’s chances?
The word negligible is probably the term most appropriate. Naturally there will be occasional successes here and there but will they make a fundamental difference, will they seriously and permanently breach Russian lines of defence? It is just possible that one attack may come close and appear to have done so. But what will the Russian response be after making a tactical withdrawal perhaps? Will they throw their hands up and surrender? Unlikely. The most likely scenario is an extremely massive attack on any such Ukrainian forces including their routes of supply. They will be in short order surrounded in what the Russians term a ‘cauldron’ and annihilated. This is the most likely scenario even in the event of a breach in Russian lines.
These are the chances that Ukraine has currently, use the remaining stock of HIMARS and Stormshadow missiles plus whatever drones they have left in one concerted forward movement also including a vast wave of infantry to attempt by sheer force of numbers to break through the Russian wall of death awaiting them. Estimates of how many Ukrainians are likely to die in such a suicide campaign vary but the figure is unlikely to be lower than 25,000 and this is likely too low an estimate. The remainder of western weaponry including the British ‘Challenger’ tanks are likely also to be destroyed also.
Would you like to bet on the chances of a Ukrainian victory? Perhaps keep that shirt on your back? Losing it would leave yourself and the entire political elite of the west naked and terribly exposed to ridicule and humiliation having bet everything on what should be quite clear to you now, is a losing bet.
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