BY APRIL’S END THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY WILL HAVE LOST HALF A MILLION MEN

The monthly toll of Ukrainian troops who have either died or been severely wounded is climbing. In March some twenty seven thousand left the line of contact forever. The total number of dead and wounded currently stands at something over four hundred and seventy three thousand.  In January the losses were over twenty three thousand, in February over twenty seven thousand and in March over thirty thousand. 

As related in yesterday’s commentary, the number of Ukrainian military casualties has greatly increased since the beginning of the year compared with the same period in 2023. At the beginning of 2023 Ukrainian dead and wounded figures were running in a range of between three hundred and four hundred per day. In March just passed the losses were running at an average of one thousand per day, almost a threefold increase.

What are the reasons for the increase in Ukrainian military casualties?

One reason for the steady increase above is likely to be the increasingly amateur army that the Ukrainians are fighting with. The vast majority of well-trained (some NATO trained) troops have been taken off the battlefield killed or wounded. What is increasingly left are very poorly trained conscripts (forced or otherwise) whose average age is forty three. The lack of training and the certain inability of these troops to engage in coordinated attacks leave them subject to massive attrition through Russian attacks and/or Russian shelling of their positions.

Another reason for the increase in Ukrainian military casualties is undoubtedly the use of many additional and increasingly deadly means of delivering shells and missiles with ever-increasing accuracy. Glide bombs of great destructive power are increasingly in use by the Russian military. These cost a fraction of the cost of cruise missiles but do the same job and can be created at low cost by installing flight control units on simple unguided bombs. 

Thirdly Russia is constantly bringing on stream new and improved weaponry backed by a military industrial complex that is being constantly increased in capacity. The provision of all types of military vehicles, weaponry and ammunition is increasing to an ever greater extent. This is fuelling the ability of the Russian army to go onto the offensive, sure in the knowledge that munitions capacity and weapons production can more than keep pace with demand.

 Fourthly, but by no means least important, is the ability of the Russian air force to be much more active now than it has been in previous times. This is possible due to so many of Ukraine’s air defences being destroyed, including many Patriot systems, in recent months. Russian jets are able to roam freely in many areas taking out enemy positions, destroying arms and fuel dumps and so forth. Using the aforementioned glide bombs which they carry they can also destroy these positions at a much greater distance and with more accuracy than was previously the case.

A fifth reason for the increasing level of Ukrainian military casualties is the push forward by Russian troops over the previous three months and the increasing disarray of the Ukrainian troops due to factors one and two above. Russia increasingly has the upper hand as Ukrainian army morale continues to slip after the recent liberation of Avdeevka.  

All of the above factors will likely see Ukrainian military casualties soar to even greater heights in the coming months and it seems clear that with nothing obvious standing in the way, the toll of Ukrainian military casualties over the entire two year plus period of Russia’s special military operation will reach a  total of five hundred thousand, or over, by the end of April.