THE INESCAPABLE REALITIES OF THE UKRAINIAN BATTLEFIELD

What can be said about the situation in Ukraine free of the biases of western political narratives & their mirror image in western mass media? This is my attempt to present the facts on the ground.

The Russian military is pushing relentlessly forward, liberating strategic villages and positioning itself to take small towns all across the Donbass region and in particular within the territory west of Donetsk City. The Ukrainian forces are putting up some resistance but holes in the Ukrainian defence line are leaving areas without the support needed due to the increasing problems of lack of additional manpower and of replacement of weaponry and ammunition. Over the last year and more Russia has vastly increased its military manpower with an estimated 1,400 volunteers per day entering the Russian military and going on to receive extensive training.

While Russia’s manpower resources have steadily increased, those of the regime have decreased and at an unsustainable level. In the last many months the attrition rate of Ukrainian troops being taken off the battlefield dead or wounded has run at a level of approximately 1,000 per day. The Kiev regime has, at the same time, struggled to recruit and train additional troops. Ukrainian men are hiding in their apartments, sometimes venturing out disguised as women or are fleeing to the Romanian border in an attempt to escape mobilisation. All know that to be dragooned off the streets and sent to the front with minimal training is a death sentence at this stage.

More and more of those Ukrainians who have been frogmarched to the front, often elderly men who should not be there (the average of a Ukrainian trooper is reported to be 43) cannot possibly stand for long against the highly trained and constantly refreshed Russian troops who are given regular downtime away from the front lines. The Russian troops are, in addition, highly trained, armed with the latest kit and equipment and have a constant supply of all the various resources to sustain life at the front. In addition, the Russian military has at least a six to one advantage, and sometimes as high as a ten to one advantage in firepower with its artillery and ammunition supplies. Add to this the Russian military complex now in high gear producing more and better weaponry all the time. With hypersonic and supersonic missiles on stream and a Ukrainian air force all but decimated allowing Russia to rule the skies what chance does Ukraine have?

The Ukrainian offensive last year was conclusively defeated by Russia with the Ukrainian military not even reaching Russia’s defensive lines. At the cost of many tens of thousands of lives the regime managed to take limited territory, most of which has now been taken back by Russia. The western powers talk of the possibility of Ukraine mounting another offensive in 2025 but with Russia now on the march and Ukraine struggling in almost every area the chances of this occurring are decreasing rapidly by the day.

It must be evident to any serious observer by now that the experts on war outcomes are correct when they say that Russia will prevail simply on the basis of a far greater ratio of resources compared to that available to the Ukrainian regime. This despite the pouring of weaponry into Ukraine by the western powers, the level of which is set to diminish despite the latest tranche and threats from both NATO and the EU to boost this.

When it became clear that Russia had withstood the onslaught of western financial and economic sanctions and even began to prosper economically while the West suffered it was clear Russia would prevail. It would have been sensible and pragmatic for the western powers to convince Zelensky to halt his useless resistance when this became clear. It seems clear to me that the West was relying on a double whammy of a weakened Russia through sanctions along with the expenditure of much blood and treasure to effect a victory by the Ukrainian regime in combination with the West. Now, after the almost complete failure if not indeed the COMPLETE failure of this policy I don't see anything stopping Russia. 

Rump Ukraine, west of the Dnieper will most likely be reformed into several protectorates governed by EU nations until new elections are organised and run. These elections will with absolute certainty see peace candidates, Russia-neutral and Russia-positive candidates win across the board. That will signify the complete end of Zelensky and all who cleaved close to him. 

The end will be humiliating for the USA and particularly for the EU. Brussels will have to eat crow and cough up billions from EU taxpayers to put rump Ukraine back into some kind of shape that comes half way toward economic viability. Russia will reinforce its governance in all its new territories, bringing all the benefits of Russian pensions, health care, education, salaries, infrastructure such as airports, rail lines, motorways etc. etc. 

Ten years from now the entire location will be transformed and any historian looking back will surely remark at the incredible and disastrous folly of western geopolitical entities of the West and shake their heads in utter disbelief that such arrant stupidity with such catastrophic and tragic outcomes could ever have been allowed to take place.