WHY IS RUSSIA RELUCTANT TO DECLARE WAR ON THE KIEV REGIME?

The Kiev regime and those in the West who sponsor, aid and abet them are now pushing Russia to the limit. Sooner rather than later that limit is likely to be reached. Then the REAL fireworks start.

Why is it that Russia hasn't declared war on the Ukrainian regime? I would have thought that the latest murderous incursion by the Ukrainian army into Russian territory would have resulted in this and that this act of war by it presented the most appropriate moment to date to do it.

There are only a very few reasons why this is not occurring as far as I can see.

1. RF needs a head of state in Ukraine to sign the requisite documents when the inevitable capitulation arrives and also sufficient remaining figures in authority to organize as smooth a handover to their replacements via fresh elections.

2. RF wants to avoid the rest of the world perceiving it in a negative light, i.e. as a bully waging all-out war on a weaker nation. Of course Russia is already seen in a negative light by most western powers and their supporters but RF naturally wants to ensure both its old and new found allies stay onside, at least economically.

But, as I see it, only hitting the Kiev regime hard is going to bring this thing to its end any time soon. Presently it looks like Zelensky and those serving him will keep this going well into next year as long as the Ukrainian people don't continue to rise up and muster even larger forces to bring him down. And of course as long as the Ukrainian army has no catastrophic collapse resulting in an overwhelming surge forward by Russian army.

Up until quite recently and certainly in the initial stages of the special military operation the RF was not ready for full scale war. The goal was limited to getting Zelensky to fulfill Ukraine’s obligations within the UN-ratified Minsk Accords. A minimal expeditionary force was used in those initial stages in an effort to intimidate the regime into fulfilling its promises. This soon proved to be much more difficult than the Kremlin believed at the outset. Then came the Istanbul negotiations which showed such great promise, rendered null and void through the intervention of the western powers via its emissary at the time, Boris Johnson.

Even despite the clear intent of Zelensky and his western sponsors to take things to their military limit the RF continued to up the ante only very gradually. This may have been largely due to the additional costs involved during a time when it was extremely important to get the Russian economy firmly back on its feet again. No matter what the reasons were, also possibly a reluctance to mobilize large sections of Russian male society, there was a general lack of manpower to wage a full scale war.

The above lack of sufficient manpower has now largely been resolved. At the last count there were some 1,500 Russian volunteering to join Russia’s military per day. This peaked in the months after the terrorist outrage in Moscow at the Crocus City Hall venue in March of this year but is likely still running at quite a high figure even now. As I understand it the Russian army now stands at something approaching 800,000 though most are not engaged in active combat duty.

It could well be that there will be a declaration of war at some point in the not too distant future and the president and military high command are merely awaiting specific signs of a breakdown in Ukrainian army morale and/or a particularly large breakthrough by the RUAF of Ukrainian defense lines. This would be in line with the general extremely patient approach displayed to date where the RUAF steadily grinds down the opposition to it in a carefully planned campaign of relentless attrition. 

We will have to wait and see. No doubt the present incursion into Russia’s Kursk region will be steadily dealt with over the next week or two and a sanitary zone created across the Ukrainian border in the Sumy region to ensure the Ukrainian army is incapable of any similar incursion there in future. This is the plan at least as stated by Vladimir Putin in the last 24 hours. There will hopefully be even more strident action to coincide with the above, including the most devastating series of attacks seen to date hitting the most strategic targets across the width and breadth of Ukraine.

But no declaration of war. Not yet at least…