Though the Russian Federation is quite clearly winning in its conflict with the Ukrainian regime and its western sponsors it is certain that together, in their mounting desperation they will attempt major spectacular attacks upon Russian territory, most likely within Crimea. The U.S. elections are fast approaching along with the potential closing of the window of opportunity for both regime and its present sponsors to hit Russia hard.
The last months of the Ukrainian conflict are likely to see a number of major developments initiated by both sides. The Russian military has been increasing the speed of its liberating of territory across the line of contact. Meanwhile the gambit of the Kiev regime in the Kursk region of Russia is rapidly being neutralized after being systematically contained over the last month. The gains Russia will make during October and November are likely to be very substantial. Both Pokrovsk and Toretsk are likely to fall to Russian forces and possibly also Siversk.
On the regime side of the equation, with a new broom at the head of NATOand an increasingly desperate Democratic Party hierarchy in Washington seeking a boost to its electoral chances in the upcoming presidential election, it looks certain that a major attack on Russian territory will be attempted. Zelensky is facing an end to his presidency if the present course of events is continued. With a new Trump presidency he knows he will reach a cul-de-sac regarding his ambition to continue leading Ukraine in this U.S. proxy war against Russia. He knows he must do something big to signify he is still a valuable U.S. asset.
All in all we can see that both sides are now at arguably the most crucial stage in this conflict reflecting the overarching war taking place between a declining West and a rising East. To maintain and then further boost its global dominance the USA and its allies must defeat Russia in Ukraine. This is utterly crucial for them. On Russia’s side it cannot allow its enemies to lie directly on its border, continually destabilizing it and threatening attacks. For both sides this war is existential and this is why, unless Trump arrives back in the White House we can expect even greater loss of life and major attempts by the West’s proxies in Ukraine to mount spectacular attacks.
The Ukrainian army is all but defeated. Most of its forces are totally exhausted and in addition most of the recent contingents to their forces are increasingly untrained, elderly and unable by motivation or numbers to put up much of a fight. This means that the Kiev regime will be increasingly forced to mount pin prick attacks on Russian targets by the use of either long-distance drone flights or western missiles. In the latter case the Russian military is currently attempting to neutralize the capacity of the regime to mount such attacks. A major campaign against sites in the Odessa area is currently underway to effect this.
The next days and weeks will be crucial. Only today, 6th October we hear that a Ukrainian deputy by the name of Dunda, speaking in the Latvian capital Vilnius, advocated a Ukrainian military incursion into Belarus. While doing so he essentially admitted that Russia would win the war of attrition in the Donbass:
‘People's deputy of Ukraine Oleh Dunda from the Servant of the People party believes that the transfer of hostilities to the territory of Belarus can be an effective strategy for Ukraine, as it will make it possible to expand the front and weaken Russia's control.
He stated this while speaking at the «XIII Forum of Free Russia» in Vilnius.
Oleh Dunda emphasized that the continuation of hostilities near Pokrovsk or Vuhledar will not bring the desired results, because such a war is a drain on resources. In his opinion, Russia is ready to spend everything to win, which puts Ukraine in a disadvantageous position.
«You need to understand one thing. It is impossible to win the war under Pokrovsk, it is impossible under Vuhledar. But it is quite possible to win a war on the territory of the Russian Empire or Belarus. The war going on near Pokrovsk is the war of the First World War — it is a war of resource depletion. We have to admit one fact that Russia is ready to spend everything in this war, unlike our partners. And she a priori has priority here in this regard. This is an unprofitable war for Ukraine.»
According to the people's deputy, military operations similar to the recent attack in Kursk should have been carried out a year ago during the counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia.
«With our experience and our knowledge, we need to strike where the Russian Empire is as weak as possible. Rock it from all sides. The operation that was carried out in Kursk should have been carried out a year ago during the counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia. And there would be a different result. Completely different,» he said.
In his opinion, the introduction of «small units» into the territory of a neighboring country will lead to the fact that the Belarusian army will lay down its arms. He also emphasized that such an operation would deal a serious blow to Moscow, demonstrating its inability to control territories under its control.
«My point of view, it is absolutely important to transfer the war not only to the territory of Briansk, Kursk region and Belarus. I am deeply confident that, having entered Belarus with a relatively small unit, the Belarusian army will lay down its weapons. It's not even confidence, it's knowledge, I would say. And this is a big blow to Moscow, to show that it does not control these territories. It is not ready to defend these territories,» he believes.
You can see from the above and the way the conflict is moving increasingly in Russia’s favor that acts of desperation by the Ukrainian regime and its allies are also increasing, and can increasingly be expected. Russia is unlikely to be able to stop all such acts against it, however, even if major attacks against Crimea or other assets deep within Russia (the go-ahead having been given by Washington) these pin prick if substantial attacks will not alter the course of the war or its ultimate outcome.
It is just possible that the Biden administration, unhinged and desperate for a win in November will risk the actions described above, in particular attacks by NATO (using semantic spin re. Ukrainian responsibility) deep inside Russia and so risk a nuclear war. It is not a future that any rational person would contemplate risking for the sake of retaining power, yet the fast diminishing role of the USA and its allies across the world may well make its leaders contemplate exactly such acts of potential catastrophe. These days, weeks and months ahead are the most dangerous humanity has ever faced. All we can do, looking in, is only hope against hope that something approaching good sense eventually prevails. Otherwise the ultimate and long-feared, ultimate catastrophe could well be upon us.
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