It appears certain that ‘for show’ peace negotiations will begin between Ukrainian and Russian representatives within the next several months. Trump needs these to start for reasons such as his standing re. presidential campaign promises made. Ukraine and Russia, for public relations reasons and due to Trump pressure will agree to take part. Under no circumstances however should Russia agree to a ceasefire, the reason being that this would allow the Ukrainian military to regroup and rearm as well as reinforce its fortifications.
Putin’s willingness to be reasonable was abused for years while he became enmeshed in a fruitless charade in Minsk. Betrayed by Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko initially and later also by Macron and Zelensky, Putin must ensure no more such tricks are played. No matter how much he may desire peace and an end to this conflict he knows he cannot afford to put the security of Russia and of the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass at risk. To allow the western powers in combination with the Ukrainian regime to freeze the conflict would risk just that.
I suspect that both Ukrainian and Russian delegations at such a peace negotiation would be play-acting. I do not believe either side sees a stable and lasting peace being within reach as things stand currently. But to pacify their allies both must make a show of appearing to be engaged in delivering this impossible outcome. Meanwhile the war will continue with Russia continuing to win using the same slow-grinding attritional tactics as before though increasingly speeded through further collapses in Ukrainian troop morale, desertions and the taking of vital locations allowing faster advance.
Russia needs to take the fight all the way to the Dnieper River to ensure the maximum security of Russia as it will then stand, all the way from the eastern bank of the Dnieper to the most easterly town in Russia, Anadyr. I believe Putin and the Russian higher command know this now, and have for some time, ever since it became clear that the Kiev regime and its western sponsors had no intention of coming to a peaceful settlement but were determined to use the situation as a means to undermine and sufficiently weaken Russia to then break her apart. There is precisely nothing to be gained and everything to lose for Russia in freezing things as they stand now. It would only result in a permanent state of danger for Russia.
If a ceasefire was agreed before, during or after negotiations between the sides we would see an immediate influx of NATO troops greatly boosting the regime’s armed forces. Every opportunity would be taken to deliver and position NATO weaponry also. Every advantageous option would be maximised to thwart Russia’s required goal of reaching the Dnieper. The theatre of upcoming pseudo negotiations will be played in similar style as those which concluded in Istanbul just a few short months after Russia’s operation in Ukraine began. It is very likely that it will once again be the Ukrainians who break them off. Finding some fraudulent justification for this will not be a problem and western news media and political elites will mirror whatever Kiev says. At that point Trump will have to cook up some excuse of his own which he too will not find too onerous.
With the spurious “peace negotiations” out of the way all parties will resume their various strategies. The war, having continued throughout the farcical negotiations, will sooner or later bring about total collapse in Ukrainian military morale with almost every major Ukrainian-held city in the Donbass having been liberated. Russia, having broken through Ukraine’s fortification line in southern Donbass, will move speedily forward through the land beyond to finally arrive at the Dnieper. Shortly thereafter, even if Slavyansk (Sloviansk) and Kramatorsk have not yet been fully liberated, they will then quickly fall to Russia. Only Kiev will remain as a subject of negotiations to be held once a new president and government have been elected in what remains of Ukraine.
There must be no more debilitating delays initiated by untrustworthy Kiev regime or western sources. Nothing of this kind should be agreed to by Russia and not in Putin’s wildest dreams contemplated. Russia has been subject to enough abuse on this score. The war must continue no matter what ersatz diplomacy seems to be at play. Pretend negotiations? Fine. But never, under ANY circumstances must there be a ceasefire. Russia must hold firm to the task at hand, crush the enemy day on day until the Dnieper is reached and all land then held secured and made impregnable to attack. At that point Trump can say whatever he likes, it will have been Russia that ended the war. Then, with all taken and secured Russian troops right across the entire Russian Federation can proudly roar… “VICTORY IS OURS!”
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