Trump would like the Ukraine war to come to an end. Not due to his remorse concerning lives lost, solely due to the cost to the USA of that war which shows no sign of ending. He is, as we used to say in the Sixties, a Breadhead. He thinks in terms of the bottom line, of dollars and cents gained or spent. He sees that the Ukraine war is being lost but that the Europeans are determined to see it continue. If the Europeans get their way the U.S. cannot help but contribute still more billions to the Ukrainians. To leave the Europeans high and dry and having to carry the entire burden of continuing the war would bring significant risk to Trump’s reputation and the USA’s standing and interests in Europe. So, he wants to end this war.
Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine so he can concentrate on the other wars he has chiefly in mind, the economic war against China and Israel’s hot war against Iran. These two wars he finds very worth his time and some finance supporting. His cabinet is currently being filled with anti-China, anti-Iran and pro-Israel warmongers. If you thought Trump was anti-war per se you could not be more wrong. As well as the wars of various kinds against China and Iran you can add the war against Venezuela which he will undoubtedly pick up on again along with his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, one of the main regime change wannabes against Venezuela along with John Bolton in Trump’s previous term.
The Ukraine war has been massively expensive for the U.S. government even while it has been massively profitable for the USA’s military industrial complex. However, with a national debt just about to touch $36 trillion Trump can hardly afford to keep shelling out just for the sake of the burgeoning bank accounts of America’s merchants of death. He needs to do something for the folks at home who voted for him, those who have been suffering price hikes that have squeezed them hard for the last four years. He wants to spend money at home and improve things there, even if the Neocons who still hold major sway within the deep state still see foreign policy interference worldwide as a far higher priority. Having said this, just like last time, Trump has tapped Neocons like Rubio for some of the most important positions in his upcoming administration.
If Trump manages to cajole, threaten, wheedle, argue or bribe the two warring parties in Ukraine into having negotiations and this, just possibly (he hopes) leading to at least a temporary ceasefire, the conditions may then be set for a more favourable way to end U.S. payments to Ukraine. He surely can’t possibly believe his boasts about ending the war completely. Anyone who knows the fundamentals of how each of the sides sees this prospect in the most negative of terms sees how unobtainable this is in anything approaching the short term. Russia cannot afford to allow the regime in Kiev to rearm and bolster its fortifications readying itself for another counteroffensive. The Ukrainians cannot allow any suggestion that what they maintain to still be territory belonging to them be acknowledged to be Russian. No matter what Trump says, be it composed of threats or bribes, he can’t square this circle and at best can only hope for some modification of the circumstances that lets him off the hook regarding the constant draining away of U.S. finances.
Trump is desperate to help Israel pursue its genocidal policies against the Palestinians.He and his team will provide Israel with 100% support across all issues, no matter what new atrocities they commit. Likewise he and his team are lusting to hit Iran hard in whatever way short of outright war they can manage. This without doubt will be done via their unanimous and unending support of the Netanyahu regime in Jerusalem. Iran will be hit by every possible sanction the USA and its allies can through at it. On China the Trump policy of setting tariffs and bans on Chinese good, continued by Biden, will, without doubt, be ramped up to further heights while using semantic doublespeak with the Chinese over Taiwan. Trump will leverage the pressure on the Chinese regarding Taiwan to ever higher levels. Trump is very likely to use rhetoric against China that comes as close as he dares to instigating outright hostilities, but not quite. He will certainty wage economic war against China, that cannot possibly be in doubt.
Anyone who believed Trump would bring peace, sweetness and light, universal understanding and tolerance to the world and, who knows, acknowledge the USA’s place as just another nation among many seeking to get by in a multipolar world will have their hopes dashed big time. No. ‘America First’ remains Trump’s aim. First and foremost, “democratic” dictator, global police force and ultimate arbiter of what should be, and what shouldn’t. Trump will not deviate from the external U.S. policy of protecting its interests and suborning all other nations to its will to do so. The sovereignty of others will continue to bow to the security and national interests of the USA under Trump, just as it has been for every U.S. administration in living memory. Whether you call what Trump and the USA does to others in order to achieve this ‘war’ or not… that is, if we are being completely honest about it, exactly what it is.
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