In geopolitics things rarely move along straight lines. Those who expect to be able to predict this or that national leader are likely to be disappointed. The election of Donald J. Trump is being welcomed by some on erroneous grounds on the belief that he will be predictable in supporting their way of thinking and forwarding their desires. Of course it may work out that way more than it does not but no one should fal for the idea that this will occur. Donald Trump is unpredictable other than on one single point. He will, at any particular moment, do what he perceives as benefiting both the United States of America and, also important this, himself.
Some believe he will shut the war in Ukraine down, almost immediately as he has sworn too. However, the word is currently that he intends, at least initially, to take a diametrically opposite path and commit further billions to a surge. This makes sense for him if not the USA as it gives him some political cover. After supplying the Kiev regime with a last, enormous weapons package he can, with some conviction, say that he went the extra mile for Ukraine, that this last enormous effort to “save” the country failed. He can say the USA (and he) did everything humanly possible… but it failed. The failure will eventually then be explained, after a shortish delay, to be the fault of Zelensky and his people.
After the big PR push/surge Trump will call upon Zelensky to face the fact of defeat, that the USA and its allies did all they could but due to whatever excuses they can find other than Russia’s military strength, the end goal envisaged was simply too hard to accomplish. Maximum pressure will then be applied to Zelensky to either engage with Russia to find terms of agreement or… to resign and let someone else perform this task. Will this work out and at least bring about a temporary ceasefire. Maybe. But I doubt it. Most likely Vladimir Putin will simply respond “Bring it on. Do your worst.” Russia has seen off all else Zelensky’s sponsors have come up with. He will be eminently confident he can see of all else.
No one should have any doubt that Donald J. Trump is perfectly capable of making bad calls and very bad decisions. One need only look at his picks for the most powerful positions in his cabinet last time; John Bolton and Mike Pompeo for instance. If he has learned nothing from that experience then he is quite capable of making the very same mistakes again. We will have to wait and see who he taps for the most prominent positions in his cabinet this time. I said in 2016 before he took office but before his inauguration that he would struggle to find the right people. Since 9/11 all the peacemakers have been shown the door while that same door was wide open for warmongers. How many peacemakers or bridge-builders have entered the ranks of Washington’s top dogs since Trump last entered the White House. Damn few if any.
No Trump will try to live up to his boast that he could bring peace in Ukraine within 24 hours. We can only hope that he has Plan B, C, D and E ready and waiting when Plan A fails as I am certain it will. Trump is not said to be interested in detail or nuance, he believes in gut feelings, spur of the moment decisions and more than anything, that which will bring a positive headline or two for him. With the Russo-Ukraine war he has arguably arrived at a problem too far where such off the cuff solutions require much more finessing than those he can think up off the top of his head. But try to solve this thing he will. He said he would and the media would just love to see him fail right off the bat. This would be about the worst start to his second try at being U.S. president and not a good look, not a good look at all. Wish him luck though, we must.
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