Donald Trump is virtually certain to interrupt a stagnant and obdurate reluctance in the West to engage in diplomacy with Vladimir Putin of Russia. Going by his past practice of talking with those others regard as beyond the pale we can be certain he will do so again. Just as Victor Orban has reached out seeking a way forward to a peaceful settlement of the differences between Russia and Ukraine we can be sure that Donald Trump will follow suit. When Robert Fico, the prime minister of Slovakia does the same we can be fairly certain others will gradually follow.
No doubt Trump will visit Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately before or after his meeting(s) with Putin. Whether Trump will follow through with his plan to threaten both into coming to terms remains to be seen. He has spoken of threatening Vladimir Putin with sending a massive tranche of weapons (and presumably cash) to Zelenskyy if he doesn’t call a ceasefire. Likewise, in regard to Zelenskyy Trump has said he will threaten him with turning off the cash and weapons spigot if he refuses to comply by arranging an immediate ceasefire. Will his perhaps typical Trump tactic work? We will have to see.
In regard to Russia there will be close to zero enthusiasm for Trump’s ultimatum. Having progressed the war despite the USA and its allies having sent billions of financial support and myriad weapons including almost every so-called gamechanger weapon to the Kiev regime Russia may well simply say bring more of that on. Since Russia set herself free from the constraints put upon her by the western powers she became free to assert her rights to protect her national interests within her local sphere of influence. It is difficult to see her giving up in this task while she is so obviously winning.
Looking at the ultimate in intransigence characterized by Zelenskyy it is also difficult in his case to see any possibility of him caving to Trump’s demand for a ceasefire, especially if there is even a whiff of Russia being able to retain the territory she has captured thus far. However, if there is no suggestion of this then Zelenskyy will no doubt see Trump’s plan as an opportunity to regroup and rearm and possibly even a chance to twist NATO’s arm into accepting Ukraine into its ranks. By accepting Trump’s plan Kiev would then put Russia on the back foot notwithstanding Russia’s clear ability to continue winning no matter what the West gives Kiev.
Russia knows that only direct intervention by NATO forces can offer Kiev any hope of slowing, and potentially stopping the Russian military’s ever-quickening forward progress. But Russia also knows this is something NATO will not do and that those in control of NATO, primarily the USA, knows would be virtual suicide to do. The risk of the war widening and even broadening to a nuclear conflict thereby, is obvious. Russia also knows that most of the world has her back.
The virtual stranglehold western power has had over the world in general has been vastly loosened in recent years primarily due to the economic rise of China and to a lesser extent the return to the world stage of Russia.
Numerous countries across the planet are steadily gravitating to these two and are increasingly resistant toward western influence. Subsequently there is an ongoing and cumulative effect whereby this group grows stronger while the West is subsequently becoming weaker. This is a natural consequence of a desire to escape the western yoke that has consistently undermined the national sovereignty of those it has sought over the years to dominate, manipulate and coerce to its will.
The western powers sought to exercise their accustomed ability to shape global events in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24th 2022. In light of the, until then, apparently still powerful ability of the West to respond, Russia appeared to be putting itself at great risk of being weakened by what was clearly the western plan with this in mind. The expectation in the West was that they would wreak havoc on the Russian economy through the mother of all sanctions policies while it leveraged the rest of the world to comply with western wishes, and do the same. However, Russia had prepared the ground in expectation of these tactics as we can now plainly see.
The situation we now find ourselves in, in November of 2024 is quite extraordinary. What was supposed to be a devastating and highly coordinated series of economic attacks on Russia meant to render Russia a bankrupt supplicant crawling to the West for mercy, has resulted in an outcome that has turned the tables completely on the West. Instead of this intended scenario we have seen that it is the western world that has reeled in agony with successive boomerang emanating from the methods used. In addition and in general, most nations have graduated closer to Russia rather than away from her.
Meanwhile, as the West rather than Russia, succumbs to economic and financial turmoil Russia’s campaign in Ukraine is closer than ever to achieving her goals. With the Russian economy prospering it has a newfound energy and dynamism along with a far higher degree of self-sufficiency and protection from outside threats than ever before. Russian entrepreneurs have successfully filled the vast majority of corporate niches abandoned by western enterprises and new, friendly trading partners are constantly being found. Rather than making Russia weaker, as was the stated goal, the last years since the war began, Russia has become far stronger.
Money and weaponry has flowed into Ukraine during this time weakening the West. There appeared to be no limit to this waterfall of scarce western resources even as the economies across the West failed and its citizens found the standard of living enjoyed by them dropping like a stone. The sky appeared to be the limit for the largesse provided to Ukraine, the most corrupt nation in Europe. However, we will no longer hear western politicians talk of supplying this endless waterfall of cash and weapons, “dor as long as it takes”. A new acceptance of the hard reality of defeat is now settling in deeper and deeper among them. Trump’s arrival in the White House in January will signal, once and for all, Zelenskyy’s luck has finally run out.
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